The Hindu Business Line : Nargis gets a move, readies for landfall

Bangkok, May 1 The very severe cyclonic storm Nargis patrolling the west-central and adjoining south and east-central Bay of Bengal is cruising along its trajectory to the northeast, having recurved from the mid-seas off Chennai.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) traced the system to about 650 km southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar) on Thursday. Nargis is likely to undergo another round of intensification and move in an east-northeasterly direction to cross the Myanmar on Saturday night, the IMD said.

The multi-hazard early warning system (EWS) at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) here has said Nargis is likely to slam down on the southern Myanmar coast around 7.30 p.m. on Saturday, according to forecasts generated through simulation runs.

TO MOVE INLAND

Importantly, the ADPC forecast seemed to suggest that the system, while weakening on landfall, will continue to pack some punch and spin its way a considerable distance inland into Myanmar triggering sustained rainfall in the region over the next few days.

The Myanmar Cabinet has already set into motion a disaster preparedness drill after having been formally informed by the ADPC about the impending landfall of the strong cyclone, Mr A.R. Subbiah, Director, Climate Risk Management, at the ADPC told Business Line here.

MAY INTENSIFY

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) of the US Navy said on Friday that Tropical Cyclone Nargis has tracked east-northeastward at eight knots (15 kmph), in sharp contrast to its bearing over the past two days when it lay almost still over the waters off Chennai. The agency saw the massive system slightly intensifying over the next 12 to 24 hours as it approached a landfall.

The good ‘window’ effect to the top would allow Nargis to breathe easily, while the warm waters will help it whip up the moisture and the latent heat required to fuel its growth. The landfall could happen within the next 36 hours, following which the weakened storm would track a north-northeast inland into Myanmar.

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