The Hindu Business Line : Bay ‘low’ seen dropping anchor to steer rains

Thiruvananthapuram, May 8 The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the ‘low’ popping up over south-east Bay of Bengal around Monday dropping its anchor off the Myanmar coast for at least a week.

This could set off the southwest monsoon in the Andaman Seas and bring its ‘Bay arm’ to the gateway in the North-East during the week ending May 24, according to initial forecasts by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

Simultaneously, piloting rains are expected to reach the Kerala coast, prior to the core of the ‘Arabian Sea’ arm of monsoon showing up at the southwest gateway during the latter part of the week.

The India Met Department (IMD) on Thursday said that rain and thundershowers are likely at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next 48 hours. South Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep would also witness rain or thundershowers during this period, which will intensify thereafter.

FENDING OFF

The Bay ‘low’ is forecast to start moving west to north-central Bay of Bengal after a week, only to be ensnared by a westerly wave dipping low to southerly latitudes. By this time, it would have fended off aggressive run-ins by a couple of other passing waves, including the one active over northwest and central India.

The same westerly system extending to east is seen scooping up and dragging a counterpart typhoon in the Philippine Sea as well as a tropical storm in the South China Sea in a north-northeast direction. A large high-pressure area in the central and east-central Pacific will help the westerlies steer these systems along.

The Bay ‘low’ would be able to stand its ground through all this but without strengthening, since it would need to share the moisture feed from the east with the ‘storm duo’. Not strengthening to the desired level would mean giving in to the rogue westerlies, as is forecast to happen around May 18.

THUNDER SQUALLS

Over the mainland, isolated thunder squalls have been forecast to line up along Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa during the next two days. The maximum temperatures were 2-3 degree Celsius below normal over most parts of northwest and central India on Thursday.

Unsettled weather created by passing western disturbances and offspring cyclonic whirls is expected to keep the maximum temperatures near or below normal for the next three days. There is no possibility of a heat wave developing during the next five days, the IMD said.

East India and the North-East are likely to experience isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers accompanied by squalls thanks to the presence of the north-south trough and embedded upper air cyclonic circulations.

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