The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon covers most of Andaman Sea

Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the next two day.

Vinson Kurian

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Thiruvananthapuram, May 12 Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, entire south Andaman Sea and most parts of north Andaman Sea.

Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the next two days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Monday.

The IMD expected the anticipated “low” to take shape over north Andaman Sea during the next 24 hours. Numerical weather prediction models indicated that the system might intensify and move in a northwesterly direction.

Predictions made by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are also in agreement but go to suggest that, going forward, the system would be forced to head north after being accosted by an invading western disturbance.

WESTERLY COMING

Medium-range forecasts made by the Ministry of Earth Sciences have already notified the arrival of a westerly system by Tuesday evening. ECMWF predicts a scenario where the westerly dips south to scoop up the “low” and sling it over Bangladesh around the weekend.

It is likely that the “low” would have stayed long enough to dump heavy rainfall over adjoining Myanmar, still struggling to come to terms with the aftermath of very severe cyclonic storm Nargis that made a landfall on May 2.

The neighbouring South China Sea too is expected to witness intense activity during this week but, unlike projections made earlier, the brewing system might just fail to spin up to typhoon strength.

It could be a tropical storm at best, may cross the Philippines, and enter the east-central Pacific waters. Here, the storm is shown to decelerate over the surface stirred up and cooled by predecessor Super Typhoon Rammasun. This could help the westerly flows to get increasingly directed into the Bay “low”.

HEAVY RAINFALL

Meanwhile, the IMD has warned isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands for the next two days. Isolated squall is likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh.

The IMD has also forecast that scattered rain or thundershowers will scale up over east and northeast India and the south peninsula, the two gateways over the mainland for the monsoon.

Fairly widespread rainfall activity will continue over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa while isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over the northeast. In the south, a few places over south Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, north Tamil Nadu and south Karnataka are also forecast to witness a wet spell.

This period will also see a gradual increase in maximum temperatures over northwest and central India, as they emerge out of the long shadow of successive western disturbances. The ‘heat low’ over west Rajasthan should also start rebuilding.

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