The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ springs up over N. Andaman Sea

Thiruvananthapuram, May 13 The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that a low-pressure area has sprung up over North Andaman Sea in the larger Bay of Bengal basin late on Tuesday evening.

An earlier bulletin had said the watch for the ‘low’ was being extended by a day, reflecting the less-than-strong level of confidence in the eventuality. This was significant in the context of a stronger system evolving in the neighbouring South China Sea.

TO STRENGHTEN

The ‘low’ would speed up the progress of the monsoon to more parts of south Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea during the next two days. Westerly/southwesterly winds are likely to strengthen over south and adjoining central Bay of Bengal.

Widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Andaman Islands. Numerical weather prediction models indicate that the ‘low’ is likely to intensify and move in a northwesterly direction.

The IMD update on Tuesday said that during the past 24 hours, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls occurred over Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Isolated squall is likely over West Bengal, Sikkim, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh during the next two days. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu and south Karnataka.

ECMWF OUTLOOK

In its updated predictions, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) too seemed to give the South China Sea storm ‘the benefit of doubt’ over the Bay system.

The former will cross the Philippines as a moderately strong tropical storm over the next five days. After entering the east-central Pacific waters, it may intensify as a typhoon and move east skipping Japan to the north.

During its stay in the two ocean bodies, it would be able to attract the bulk of the southwesterly flows thanks to the large size and intensity.

Eclipsed in the bargain, the Bay system would wash ashore quietly along the Bangladesh coast.

Meanwhile, the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy seemed to suggest that the monsoon could break over Sri Lanka around May 20. Normally, the onset over mainland India (Kerala coast) should follow within the next five days.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has set up the ‘onset window’ for Kerala during week starting May 21, even as it indicated a ‘blow-up’ of rainfall over the southwest coast a few days ahead.

An NCEP outlook observed that the prevailing high-pressure zone over the Arabian Sea might hold until May 17, later giving way for low-level monsoon westerly flows to target Sri Lanka and the southwest coast of India.

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