The Hindu Business Line : Rogue whirl in Arabian Sea may spin up as cyclone

The onset phase of this year’s monsoon may likely feature a cyclone in the west Arabian Sea, with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) expecting a yet-to-be-born rogue circulation to spin up to class-matching strength.

The system is forecast to develop in the west-central Arabian Sea and steer itself later into a north-northwest direction for lateral movement. Expected to make a landfall over the Yemen/Oman coast around May 29, the cyclone will bear the moniker ‘Abe’ according to the official storm naming protocol.

The timing of the ‘cyclogenesis’ (birth of a cyclone) and the path for onward movement would resemble those of Super Cyclone Gonu that struck Oman during the monsoon onset phase last year. The only redeeming feature this time round would be the comparatively reduced strength that the latest storm would be able to rustle up.

LIMITING FACTORS

Unlike Gonu, intensification of this storm would be slow and laboured over waters stirred up by a deep westerly trough and thus moisture-sapped. The westerly system has set the region already abuzz, and would be active for another three days, according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday.

As was the case with Gonu, the impending system too will cause the monsoon flows to be diverted and prevailing heavy rains to lift temporarily over mainland India. Thus, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees a belt of heavy rain being active during the week ending May 26, but relenting during the next, apparently under the effect of the disruptive influence of the cyclone.

Consensus forecasts veer round to the prospect of monsoon breaking over Kerala and Sri Lanka during this week. An IMD outlook cited numerical weather prediction models to state that west-southwesterly winds would set in over the south Arabian Sea from Tuesday, growing gradually in strength. Scattered rain or thundershower activity is likely over south peninsula from Thursday.

STRONGER FROM JUNE

Vast stretches of sea from the Bay of Bengal into Southeast Asia and the Philippines are seen being hammered with intense to severe thunderstorm activity during the ongoing week. Intense to severe thunderstorm activity is likely to extend from the Arabian Sea into the Bay of Bengal and Southeast Asia starting June 1, according to these forecasts.

Meanwhile, the IMD has warned that the deep westerly system would trigger thunder squalls accompanied with hailstorm over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim during the next two days. Scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers and thunder squalls/hail are likely over the Gangetic plains and the northeastern States from Thursday.

In the east, an east-west trough with an embedded cyclonic circulation over Uttar Pradesh is likely to cause scattered rain or thundershowers activity accompanied with thunder squalls over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim during the next five days. In the northeast, strong south-southwesterly winds are tipped to cause scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls during the same period.

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