The Hindu Business Line : ‘Rogue whirl’ claws its way back to charts

Thiruvananthapuram, May 21 The cyclone watch in the Arabian Sea may be off, but the causative circulation of nuisance value to the monsoon has managed to claw its way back to forecast charts.

Latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predictions showed this circulation being tossed up over the west-central Arabian Sea around May 27 to later intensify as a ‘low’.

Over the next two days, the system is projected to move west-northwest and loiter around the northwest Arabian Sea off the Oman coast before being washed ashore to the accompaniment of a fair amount of rain. The runaway westerlies crossing into northwest India from the opposite direction will prevent it from intensifying much further.

DIVERSION OF FLOWS

The west-northwest movement of the system would result in the incoming flows being diverted, cutting short the monsoon feed to India’s southwest coast. The ensuing let-up in rainfall will carry late into the first week of June, according to model forecasts.

The weather pattern over the peninsula is pulling itself together to receive the first few showers of the season. Southwesterly winds are strengthening over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

Rainfall activity over Kerala and Lakshadweep is expected to intensify from Thursday, according to the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Scattered rain and thundershowers have also been forecast over north Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Isolated rainfall or thundershowers are likely over the rest of peninsular India.

VIOLENT WEATHER

Meanwhile on Wednesday, a rampaging westerly system with a cyclonic circulation anchored over Pakistan and adjoining Punjab and north Rajasthan continued to preside over some violent weather over north and northwest India.

Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers accompanied with isolated thunder squalls or hail have been forecast for another 24 hours over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh.

The eastward march of the system will bring scattered to fairly widespread rainfall or thundershowers with isolated thunder squall over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States during the next four days. The activity may lift briefly, but could pick up with the arrival of another westerly system on Thursday.

Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over Chhattisgarh, north Madhya Pradesh and north Rajasthan. Maximum and minimum temperatures will fall to below normal over northwest India and the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next four days.

The ECMWF indicated that yet another westerly system could float in around May 28 and dip low to caress the Head Bay of Bengal. This goes to rule out a scenario where any intervening system shaping up in the Bay of Bengal could slot itself snugly into the land-based seasonal trough.

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