The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone alert again, Gujarat in line of sight

The spectre of an intense cyclone is looming large again in the north Arabian Sea, with latest forecasts suggesting that the Gujarat coast in India and Sindh in Pakistan could be in the line of sight for a hit.

The causative ‘low’ in the southeast Arabian Sea might just trigger the thundershowers over the southwest coast of India but is shown racing away to the north-northwest and intensifying rapidly into a cyclone of raw power.

The ‘low’ is likely to form during the next two days, according to an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday.

A preparatory ‘trough of low pressure’ already extends over east Arabian Sea at sea level along and off of the Maharashtra-Kerala coast.

LANDFALL AREA

The north-northwest track would seem to take the system for a landfall over Oman, but only just. Instead, the system would screech to a halt mid-course over the north Arabian Sea, drop anchor for sometime feeding voraciously on whatever moisture available, before yanked to the east by the prevailing westerly for a final assault on the India/Pakistan coasts.

It’s again the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) that is depicting the latest cyclone scenario amid the mayhem touched off by a relentless array of strong and deep westerly systems sashaying across the ‘strategically important’ waters of north Arabian Sea.

The intense westerly activity is making any informed weather guidance near-impossible, which explains the forecast flip-flops made in relation to peaking weather in the Arabian Sea in recent times.

A cyclone alert was issued for Oman earlier, only to be withdrawn after a day or two.

But the latest alert warrants close scrutiny if only for the fact that the IMD, the nearest Regional Meteorological Centre responsible for making locally relevant forecasts, has assessed that the ‘low’ over southeast Arabian Sea is likely to intensify and move in a northwesterly direction.

According to the ECMWF, the system would accelerate double-quick, move north-northwest but grind to a halt in the north Arabian Sea positioned half-way between Oman and the Sindh/Gujarat coast around May 30/31.

The landfall could take place around June 1 over the Sindh/Gujarat coasts.

If these predictions were to come true, the brewing intense cyclone (to be named ‘Abe’) would make a worthy successor to super cyclone Gonu that struck Oman during the monsoon onset phase last year.

Similarities in the cyclogenesis (origin of a cyclone), growth and intensification are hard to ignore. The only difference is in the choice of a place for landfall.

Meanwhile on Thursday, a land-based trough extending from a cyclonic circulation over Pakistan and adjoining areas of Punjab and north Rajasthan lay stretched to Bihar across Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

Moisture incursion from the nearby seas is filling the air over the Indo-Gangetic plains. Scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershower with isolated thunder squalls or hail is likely over the Indo-Gangetic plains and adjoining central India during the next three days.

The prevailing heat wave conditions over coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to abate during next 48 hours.

A warning for the next two days said thunder squalls accompanied with hailstorm are likely over Punjab, Haryana, northeast Rajasthan, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar and West Bengal and Sikkim.

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