The Hindu Business Line : Cotton production outlook unchanged at record 330 lakh bales

Cotton production outlook for the next season (August 2008-July 2009) has been kept unchanged at a record 330 lakh bales (of 170 kg each). According to Cotlook, the production estimate is against this year’s 315 lakh bales.

Second largest porducer

This also means for the third consecutive year, India will be the second largest cotton producer in the world, having overtaken the US three years ago.

Still, it will be nowhere near China’s projected production of 450 lakh bales, up marginally from this year.

Cotlook, reviewing its production estimated from April, sees lower production in Africa Franc zone and others by nearly 75,000 tonnes.

The significant feature of next year’s cotton production outlook is that the over one million tonnes fall in the US output is set to be offset by countries such as Australia, Pakistan, Brazil and Africa Franc zone.

Australia, in particular, is set to nearly treble its output to 3.4 lakh tonnes from 1.26 lakh tonnes this year.

Global production

Global cotton production for next season is now estimated by Cotlook at 25.18 million tonnes (mt) against last month’s projection of 26.26 mt and this year’s 25.57 mt.

Subsequently, Cotlook also sees global consumption declining by 59,000 tonnes next year to 26.25 mt against initial estimates of 26.31 mt and last years 25.99 mt.

That will lead to the carryover stocks declining 1.06 million tonnes from the earlier projection of 1.04 mt.

This year, the stocks are expected to decline by 4.18 mt.

Consumption

On the consumption side, Indian consumption is seen increasing to 430 lakh bales up from 419 lakh bales this year. China’s consumption is expected to increase to around 640 lakh bales from 627 lakh bales this year. On the other side, offtake in the US is projected to decrease to 9.36 mt from earlier estimated of 9.58 mt and last year’s 10.01 mt.

Stating that planting was nearing completion in the Northern Hemisphere, Cotlook said, however, weather, especially the approaching south-west monsoon into India would hold the key.

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