The Hindu Business Line : Pranab Mukherjee’s Islamabad visit

Given the political volatility in Pakistan, the army is again at the centre of power. Despite Gen Kayani’s continuing rhetoric on Kashmir in the background of Mr Pranab Mukherjee’s recent visit to Islamabad, the visit did symbolise India’s commitment to dialogue with its western neighbour, says G. PARTHASARATHY.

The External Affairs Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee’s visit to Islamabad predictably did not produce any spectacular “breakthroughs.” As an experienced politician he prudently made it clear before his visit that he was undertaking his trip primarily to get a feel of the new “democratic” dispensation’s priorities and policies.

It was only appropriate that he met the embattled and politically weakened President Musharraf, senior Government leaders including Prime Minister Gilani and the political troika of Asif Zardari of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Nawaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Asfandyar Wali Khan of the Awami National Party (ANP). New Delhi will have to recognise that given the political volatility, the economic downturn and the precarious security situation, the army, led by Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, is again the centre of power in Pakistan.

The realities of power were symbolised by two recent events, which raised eyebrows, even within Pakistan. The first was a call by Prime Minister Gilani to the Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, during which the Prime Minister referred to the Army not merely as the defender of Pakistan’s borders, but also as the guardian of the country’s “ideological frontiers”, thereby conceding to the army a permanent political role in the country.

Worse still, accompanied by Mr Asif Zardari and his Foreign and Defence Ministers, Prime Minister Gilani also visited the Headquarters of the ISI and was briefed by the ISI Chief, Lt. General Nadeem Taj, about the external and internal security environment, thereby acknowledging that this army outfit, and not the civilian-run Intelligence Bureau, would continue its role of dabbling in the country’s internal politics.

With Mr Nawaz Sharif having directed Ministers from his PML(N) to resign over differences on restoration of judges sacked by Gen Musharraf, Prime Minister Gilani heads a virtual minority Government in Pakistan. Moreover, Mr Sharif has threatened to support a mass agitation by lawyers for the immediate restoration of the deposed judges, led by Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhury. Messrs Zardari and Gilani have to prepare for the eventuality that they may be forced to break bread with the pro-Musharraf faction of the Muslim League, the PML(Q), for their Government to continue in office.

Kashmir issue

Even before Mr Mukherjee arrived in Islamabad, Gen Kayani had made his views of dialogue with India on Jammu and Kashmir clear, stating, while visiting troops on the LOC, that in keeping with the sentiments of the people of Pakistan, its army would never “turn its back” on the aspirations of the people of Kashmir.

Taking the cue from their powerful Army Chief, politicians of all colours joined the chorus, vowing to fight for plebiscite and UN Resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir. Prime Minister Gilani followed suit, describing President Musharraf’s proposals to resolve the Kashmir issue, which had constituted the basis of the dialogue with India for the past three years, as “half-baked”. This rhetoric continued through Mr Mukherjee’s visit. It is a manifestation of the Manmohan Singh Government’s weakness, that despite such rhetoric, no Indian functionary set the record straight by asserting that the Indian Government is bound by the provisions of the Parliamentary Resolution of 1994, which declares the whole State of Jammu and Kashmir as an integral part of India and that Pakistan will have to vacate areas of the State occupied by it.

Any dialogue that the Government undertakes to promote what Pakistan’s Foreign Minster, Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, refers to as “innovative” proposals, will have to be without prejudice to the provisions of the 1994 Parliamentary Resolution.

Committed to dialogue

Despite these developments, Mr Mukherjee’s visit was of substantial symbolic significance, signalling to people in Pakistan and the international community that India remains committed to dialogue, peace and co-operation with its turbulent western neighbour.

New Delhi will go some way in addressing aspirations in the Kashmir Valley, if it eases counter-productive restrictions on trade and travel across the Line of Control. On the positive side, both Mr Zardari and Mr Nawaz Sharif have called for easing travel restrictions and promoting trade and economic co-operation. India will have to be more pro-active in promoting people-to-people contacts, easing visa procedures and in promoting confidence.

While wide differences remain and redeployment of forces in Siachen there are signs that the longstanding differences over demarcating the land border in the Sir Creek area are being narrowed. But there are also dark clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. Apart from the infiltration bid in Samba and the cease-fire violations on the LOC by the Pakistan army, there are credible reports of around 500 jihadis being readied for infiltration across the LOC.

The United Jihad Council, which co-ordinates terrorist violence across the LOC has been activated. Maulana Masood Azhar, the leader of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, which masterminded the attack on India’s Parliament, has been released and is spewing venom against India. The Chief of the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hafiz Mohammed Syed, is doing likewise. Leaders of the separatist Hurriyat Conference are scheduled to visit Pakistan next month. The ISI appears to be moving to disrupt forthcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir

Deal with militants

Even as Mr Mukherjee was in Islamabad, the ANP-led Provincial Government was finalising a “peace deal” with pro-Taliban militants led by Maulana Fazlullah in Swat. The deal included provisions that the militants would not carry guns in public, refrain from training suicide bombers and would not enforce bans on educational institutions for girls, on barber shops and on playing music, in return for pledge by the Government to implement Sharia Law in Swat. The Army is trying to negotiate a similar deal with pro-Taliban militants who are also providing shelter to Al Qaeda leaders in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

Despite the army’s best efforts, Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Masood has proclaimed: “Islam does not recognise frontiers. Jihad in Afghanistan (against the Americans) will continue”. With the Pashtun tribals refusing to respect the frontier with Afghanistan, the Durand Line, has for all practical purposes, ceased to exist — a development that will have serious implications for Pakistan’s unity and territorial integrity, unless handled sensitively.

Pakistan is today paying a high price for its efforts to make Afghanistan a client State by supporting radical Islamic groups including the Taliban in Afghanistan-groups which will inevitably remain internationally isolated and predominantly dependent on Pakistan. The US is preparing for the next major terrorist strike on its soil to be planned and executed from Pakistan’s troubled western frontiers with Afghanistan.

On February 15 the US Director of Intelligence, Admiral Michael McConnell, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that the US had noted an increasing influx of new Al Qaeda recruits into Pakistan’s tribal areas, adding: “Radical elements have the potential to undermine the country’s (Pakistan’s) cohesiveness”.

With the Americans getting impatient at Pakistan’s inability and unwillingness to prevent attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan from its tribal areas, Pakistan’s rulers are going to face turbulent times on their western frontiers.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

More Stories on : Foreign Relations | Politics

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Pranab Mukherjee’s Islamabad visit — Symbolism amid turmoil

The importance of appointing a secretary

MSP’s just a safety net

In investment banking, you either score a century or a duck

Achieving perfect hedge effectiveness tough

Transparency can be our greatest ally

Fund and famine

Slimmer packages, same price

Unfinished agenda