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Vinson Kurian

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Thiruvananthapuram, May 31

Southwest monsoon has set in over Kerala on Saturday, two days later than predicted by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), but a day earlier than the normal for onset over the southwest coast.

An IMD update on Saturday said the monsoon has covered most parts of south Arabian Sea and Kerala, parts of Tamil Nadu and southwest and west-central Bay of Bengal.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala and at a few places over Lakshadweep, coastal and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and north interior Karnataka.

The rainfall along the west coast is expected to get more organised during the first two weeks of June under the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a wave of anomalous precipitation passing from West Africa into the Indian Ocean and further east into the west Pacific.

On Saturday, the northern limit of monsoon passed through Kozhikode (north Kerala) and Tiruchi (Tamil Nadu). Conditions are favourable for its further advance into more parts of Arabian Sea, remaining parts of Kerala and more parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Bay of Bengal and the North-East States during the next three days.

The offshore trough extending along the Karnataka-Kerala coast persisted on Saturday. An east-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence ran across the extreme south peninsula.

A warning issued by the IMD said isolated heavy rain is likely to occur over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days. Squally weather with wind speeds reaching 45-55 km/hour is likely along and off the Kerala coast and over Lakshadweep area during the next two days.

The offshore trough along and off the southwest coast and the larger trough of low in the Arabian Sea will help the MJO wave to gel with the larger canvas of the monsoon and help bring in intense precipitation. The MJO wave has two components — one which drifts to the north and the other that transits to the east.

The one that goes to the east would head into the Bay of Bengal and hold up the Bay arm of monsoon and oversee the onset over the North-East. Normally, the pincer-like approach of the monsoon current (over the Arabian Sea and the Bay) ensures more or less simultaneous call-ins over the northeast and the southwest.

The progress of monsoon over the peninsula will flourish under the benign gaze of the MJO and the Arabian Sea systems. But heating of northwest India, lagging by many notches now, would become critical for monsoon after it hits Mumbai, central India and Bihar, according to meteorological scientists.

Heating has been impaired in the northwest after western disturbance heralded a retinue of thundershowers and squalls, cooling down the region to below normal. Heating of the land is required to set up the pressure gradient for monsoon to propagate.

Whatever heating that has taken place has been biased to the southeastern coast through this season.

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Southwest monsoon sets in over Kerala

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