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Vinson Kurian

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Thiruvananthapuram, June 1 The opening pulse of the southwest monsoon seemed to have petered out over Kerala, with the skies clearing up over most parts of the State after the onset was declared.

On Sunday, dry westerlies and northwesterlies were seen mixing freely with the prevailing current over the southwest coast, robbing the latter of moisture. This prevented the offshore trough from running further deep along and off the coast to drive in the rains.

The villain of the piece is a fresh western disturbance lying over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir. The system has an embedded cyclonic circulation over west Rajasthan, which has triggered unsettled weather over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh.

The cyclonic circulation will only help amplify the impact of the western disturbance and cause the winds to blow over the landmass into southerly latitudes. In doing so, they lose whatever little available moisture and prevail as dry winds in the south.

This ensured that bulk of the heating of the land continued to be pronounced over parts of west-central India and along the southeast coast. On Sunday, heat wave conditions prevailed over north Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and north coastal Tamil Nadu.

The offshore trough along and off the southwest coast was better defined over coastal Karnataka and the flows converging into it managed to stave off the westerlies to some extent. Evening relative humidity was markedly high over the Panjim-Mangalore-Chitradurga-Bangalore belt, which received moderately heavy rain on Sunday.

But an analysis by India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that the westerly current would start weakening during the next 24 hours, which might help the upper-level easterlies to swing back into position over the south peninsula.

The lower-level southwesterlies are expected to follow suit, creating conducive conditions for the next monsoon pulse to establish from Tuesday or Wednesday. The winds would accelerate over the next two days and establish a strong east-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence over the peninsula once again.

The strong flows would culminate in the setting up of low-pressure systems over both the peninsular seas around June 10. But, once again, westerlies would be in action, looping down into the Head Bay to consume the ‘low’ there.

The Arabian Sea ‘low’ could get repelled away from the Gujarat coast under the westerly influence, but not before triggering some heavy to very heavy precipitation all along the southwest coast. This phase would see the monsoon current enter Mumbai.

Meanwhile on Sunday, wind speeds over south Arabian Sea and the south Bay of Bengal improved, having clocked 15-20 knots per hour (28 to 37 km/hr). The wind speeds are forecast to improve further over the next few days.

An IMD update on Sunday said the southwest monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of south Arabian Sea and Kerala, parts of central Arabian Sea, most parts of coastal and south interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, entire southwest Bay of Bengal and some more parts of west-central Bay of Bengal.

The northern limit passed through Karwar, Chitradurga, Vellore and Chennai. The offshore trough extending from the Karnataka coast to Kerala coast persisted. An east-west shear zone continued to run across extreme south peninsula. The cyclonic circulation between over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Commorin area persisted.

Fairly widespread rainfall has been forecast for coastal and south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep with isolated heavy rainfall over coastal Karnataka and Lakshadweep during the next three days. Scattered rainfall activity is also likely over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during the same period.

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Skies clear up over Kerala, next ‘pulse’ awaited

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