The Hindu Business Line : Active monsoon drives into North-East

Thiruvananthapuram, June 2 The monsoon entered the North-East on Monday and is currently in an active phase, which saw it sweep through entire Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and most of the Bay of Bengal.

While the rains have been subdued over south Kerala since the onset was declared on Saturday, the ‘leading edge’ of monsoon (part of the current that ‘smells out’ fresh terrain even as its core lashes areas already covered) whipped the north Kerala-coastal Karnataka belt and further into the peninsular east and northeast.

Wind speeds over the south Arabian Sea and most of the Bay have been consistently clocking 15 to 20 knots (28-37 km/hour). If the current pace of the monsoon is maintained, the seasonal weather system could drive into Konkan over the next few days and steer the ‘leading edge’ to toy with the Mumbai-south Gujarat belt.

KONKAN FORAY

On Monday, the northern limit passed through Karwar, Bellary, Kurnool, Kakinada, Agartala and Dhubri.

The western tip of the current stayed anchored to Karwar from overnight and is waiting for the next ‘push’ to enter the Konkan belt.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that piloting rain or thundershowers could reach south Konkan, Goa and south Madhya Maharashtra soon.

This phase will bear close watching since leading weather models are signalling the formation of circulations in the surrounding northeast Arabian Sea.

Predictions suggest that the shear zone of monsoon turbulence (defined by upper level easterlies and low-level southwesterlies) would have entered into peak activity around this time with both the peninsular seas featuring ‘low’s.

MJO wave influence

The influence of an incoming Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave would be pronounced during this phase, as is being forecast by the Australian Bureau for Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC).

This pulse of active convection is seen traversing the Indian Ocean region during this week and the next, to contribute to the onset and progress of the Indian monsoon, the BMRC said.

According to meteorological experts, the flows transiting the southwest coast are strong enough that the dry northwesterlies triggered by the prevailing western disturbance may not make much impression on their run over the peninsula to south of Mumbai in the west and to the east and southwest of Bihar.

GOOD PROGRESS

Meanwhile, an IMD update on Monday said that the monsoon has further advanced into southern parts of north interior Karnataka, most of Rayalaseema, parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, entire Tamil Nadu, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh and most of Tripura, Assam and Meghalaya.

The monsoon has been vigorous over south interior Karnataka. Rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala and Lakshadweep, at many places over Karnataka and at a few places over interior Tamil Nadu and Telangana. Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.

The east-west shear zone continued to run across south peninsula. Fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep and scattered over Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh during the next two days. The North-East States are also likely to experience widespread rainfall activity with heavy to very falls during the next three days.

In the east, rain or thundershowers accompanied by squalls are likely at many places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim and at a few places over Gangetic West Bengal. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over the rest of the region.

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