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Vinson Kurien

Thiruvananthapuram, June 4 The US Navy Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has in a late evening bulletin on Wednesday upgraded the potential for a tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea as ‘fair.’

Satellite imagery revealed that the area of convection situated 833 km south-east of Mumbai was buffeted by flaring deep convection along the western periphery of a developing low level circulation centre (LLCC, the nucleus of the system).

The deep convection located to the west of the LLCC had started wrapping into the centre. The disturbance had a favourable upper level diffluence (windo effect) helping the convection to sustain, but still had to contend with vertical windshear.

The maximum sustained surface winds were estimated to be 18-23 knots (33-42 km/hr). The consolidating LLCC and more persistent convection wrapping into the centre will help the system intensify, the JTWC added.

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