The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon flows converging again, to strengthen

Thiruvananthapuram, June 6 Thursday’s depression over the east-central Arabian Sea stuck to its track to the northwest and was poised to make a landfall over Oman, denying it the room to churn to cyclonic strength.

But this did not prevent it from pulling away the monsoon current and draining most of the moisture in the form of very heavy precipitation over the open seas. Residual flows were still able to rain down the contents over coastal Karnataka, Konkan and Goa on Friday.

The landfall and consequent weakening of the depression would help the flows to converge once again over. The Global Forecast System (GFS) of the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted strong westerly/south-westerly winds blowing across the Arabian Sea over the next 10 days.

The Konkan coast, including Mumbai and south Gujarat, are forecast to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall during this resurgent phase of the monsoon.

KONKAN, MUMBAI IN FOCUS

In fact, there is another likely ‘low’ springing up off Mumbai, which models say may track later to the west into the open seas.

Scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have been reported from these regions on Friday as well.

These would go to make favourable conditions for further advance of the monsoon into Konkan, Goa, South Madhya Maharashtra, parts of north interior Karnataka, West Bengal, and Sikkim.

In its update on Friday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the pressure gradient over both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal was building to favourable values.

Strong south-westerly winds were already discernible over the west coast and east India.

The shear zone of monsoon turbulence has been forecast to strengthen once again with both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal likely throwing up upper cyclonic circulations by Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL

A meteorological warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Konkan, Goa and the north-eastern States. Further increase in rainfall has been forecast for the west coast and east India over the three days starting June 9.

The northern limit of the monsoon (NLM) has been stuck over the June 2-coordinates linking Karwar in coastal Karnataka; Kurnool, Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh, adjoining Bay of Bengal and further into the north-eastern States.

The NLM stagnated after the intervening depression in the Arabian Sea robbed it much of the momentum.

Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over south Gujarat and south Madhya Maharashtra during the next 48 hours and are set to increase thereafter. Towards the east, West Bengal and Sikkim are forecast to receive rain or thundershowers at many places accompanied with isolated squall. Isolated thunder squall is likely over northwest and east India. Meanwhile, an update by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at the University of Columbia said that the weakening La Nina (colder counterpart of El Nino) over the equatorial Pacific will give way to ‘neutral’ conditions by June-July.

However, there is considerable uncertainty after this period as some models suggest the possible development of El Nino while others show a redevelopment of La Nina.

The Indian monsoon is known to thrive during a concurrent La Nina phase, though no cause-effect relationship has been conclusively established to date.

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