The Hindu Business Line : Depression in Bay drives up monsoon vigour

Thiruvananthapuram, June 16 Sunday’s ‘low’ over the North Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression to the southeast of Kolkata driving up the monsoon activity over east India, the northeast and the Indo-Gangetic plains on Monday.

The benign presence of a western disturbance and its spin-off cyclonic circulation over Haryana continued to amplify weather over north and northwest India. The monsoon and the western disturbance are feeding into each other to set up a bustling west session.

On Monday, the seasonal trough lay along its normal west-to-east alignment and passed through Anoopgarh, Sikar, Dholpur, Rewa, Gaya, the centre of the depression in the North Bay and into the east-central Bay.

Monsoon easterlies filled the trough and were pumping oodles of moisture into the Indo-Gangetic plains.

Meanwhile to the west, steady incursion of moisture from the Arabian Sea helped sustain the circulation over Haryana and, together with moisture filtering in from the Bay, continued to trigger enhanced convection over the plains.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls over Gangetic West Bengal and north Orissa during the next two days.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/hr are likely along and off the north Orissa and West Bengal coasts during the next 24 hours.

Sea condition would be rough to very rough along and off these coasts and fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over south Orissa, Jharkhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan.

Extended forecasts suggest that the rainfall would further peak over east and central India during the three days from Thursday. Contrastingly, interior peninsular India would witness subdued precipitation during this period.

MUTED IN WEST

Meanwhile on Monday, the monsoon has covered the entire Haryana and some more parts of Rajasthan. The northern limit passed through Mount Abu, Jaipur, Churu and Sri Ganganagar.

In the northwest, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast over the western Himalayan region and the plains of the north during the next two days.

In the east, rain or thundershowers are likely at most places over Gangetic West Bengal and north Orissa and at many places over the rest of the region. Similar forecast has been made in respect of many places over the northeast as well.

Monsoon was muted on the west coast and the peninsula with the flows getting directed into the Bay system. A survey of international models suggested that active monsoon conditions may prevail in east, northeast India as well as parts of the northwest. Possibility of another weather system taking shape in the northwest Bay of Bengal in a week’s time was not ruled out.

The Global Forecast System (GFS) of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicated that east-central Bay and adjoining east India, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Uttarakhand will continue to witness moderate to heavy rainfall during the fortnight ending June 28.

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