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Vinson Kurian

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Thiruvananthapuram, June 29 The upper air cyclonic circulation hovering over east India has not just soaked the immediate backyard from Sunday’s vantage point over Gangetic West Bengal and later Bihar but has also triggered a welcome rain spell along the west coast.

It may have failed to intensify to the extent forecast earlier but that has not prevented it from doing just as much by orchestrating rains now forecast to spread into central India and Gujarat. This would go to ensure a better distribution of rains in these regions.

Marathawada, Gujarat Region and Madhya Maharashtra – all rain-deficit Met subdivisions as per latest statistics – are expected to benefit. But the other deficient subdivisions of Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura just might not be as lucky.

A cyclonic circulation has popped up over east-central Arabian Sea off south Gujarat and north Maharasthra coasts. This was earlier forecast to materialise as a mid-tropospheric cyclone around the time the Bay circulation was shaping up.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the upper air circulation over east India tracking a slow and steady movement into central India and onward to Gujarat around Jul4/5.

It could drag the active rain belt along and merge into the circulation over the Arabian Sea, bringing rains into Vidarbha, Marathawada, madhya Maharashtra, the Gujarat region and Saurashtra. On Sunday, the offshore trough extended from the Gujarat coast to Kerala.

The prevailing wet session along the west coast is expected to continue over the next five-day period, according to Dr Madhusoodanan M. S, a researcher in meteorology. The ensuing rains could go to make up the deficit that Kerala finds itself saddled with.

India Meteorological Department too has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Bihar, Jharkhand, North Chhattisgarh, the west coast and the Northeastern States during the next two days. Three days hence will see fairly widespread rainfall activity over the west coast, the Northeastern states, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Indo-Gangetic plains and central India.

On Sunday, the monsoon trough over land passed through Anupgarh, Alwar, Etawah, Varanasi, Dhanbad, Sagar Island and southeastward into east-central Bay of Bengal. A fresh western disturbance lay over north Pakistan and neighbourhood and it was expected to drift into northwest India. Two weather-driving cyclonic circulations were parked over Punjab west Uttar Pradesh.

Sector-wise forecasts by IMD said that the north and northwest would see rain or thundershowers at many places over west Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand; and at a few places over Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and north Haryana. Isolated thundershowers are likely over the rest of the region.

Towards the east, rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Bihar, Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

In the south, rain or thundershowers are likely at many places over Konkan, Goa, the Gujarat region and central India; and at a few places over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and east Rajasthan.

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Fresh spell to see rains even out across landmass

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