The Hindu Business Line : N-deal: Uncertainty continues

If the Congress Party decides to push the nuclear deal, and along with it its friends in the Left against the wall, it will be a Hobson’s choice before the UPA’s allies. In an era of coalition governments, it would be political suicide to leave a powerful coalition and brave the election battlefield on one’s own, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

The Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh…Will he have his way?

It is interesting to watch the unfolding drama in Delhi; the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, is saying categorically that all he is asking for is that his government be allowed to complete the negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency, after which he will return to Parliament before operationalising the Indo-US civil nuclear deal.

Dr Singh finally broke his two-week long silence after he had released the national action plan on climate change at his residence on Monday and said this was not an unreasonable demand. But nobody was prepared to buy his optimism that things can still be sorted out with the Left parties on the N-deal.

Only the previous day, the CPI(M) had hardened its stand against the deal, putting at rest all speculation that the Congress president, Ms Sonia Gandhi, might yet be able to bring the Left on board. After a crucial Politburo meet, the CPI(M) General Secretary, Mr Prakash Karat, reiterated his party’s chronic opposition to the “harmful agreement” and wondered why the prime minister was bent on pushing the deal through rather than finding an answer to the galloping inflation. Reiterating that the deal did not have Parliament’s majority support, he said, “If they move ahead formally to sign the safeguards agreement with the IAEA, we will then implement our Politburo decision to withdraw support to the UPA government.”

At least there is no room for any ambiguity on that front. But the question remains if the Left parties would like to bear through the next election the burden of responsibility for the fall of a government and the foisting of an election that, in all likelihood, might benefit the BJP the most.

That is why, in all its bitter statements opposing the nuke deal, the CPI(M) leader is quick to express his hope that better sense would prevail and the prime minister would stop rooting for something which would be against the interest of secularism.

“We appeal to the partners of the Congress in the UPA to ensure that no such steps are taken which will help the communal forces,” Mr Karat said, yet again, on Sunday.

UPA’s allies in a fix

It looks as though Ms Gandhi will allow Dr Manmohan Singh to have his own way which, if it happens, will leave the UPA’s allies — the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the DMK, the NCP and others — in a fix. The leaders of none of these parties want elections and they know fully well that whatever influence they have within the UPA has to be used before things come to a head with the Left parties. While publicly most of them endorse the prime minister’s reiteration that nuclear energy is badly needed by the energy-starved country, privately, they are peeved at the prospect of ending their days in power. Particularly during uncertain and tough times such as these when it is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast the outcome of any election.

But if things come to a head and the Congress Party decides to push the deal, and along with it its friends in the Left against the wall, it will be a Hobson’s choice before the UPA’s allies.

If, indeed, the Left withdraws support and the UPA Government falls, the former will have little option than go with the Congress line on the deal being beneficial for the country’s energy needs. In an era of coalition governments, it would be political suicide to leave a powerful coalition and brave the election battlefield on one’s own.

SP crucial

But the entire hullabaloo about the UPA Government’s imminent fall can vanish if the Congress and its friends manage to get the support of Mr Mulayam Singh and his Samajwadi Party.

For a start, Mr Singh raised their hopes when he indicated to a TV channel that he might yet decide to break bread with the same Sonia Gandhi who was unacceptable to him as Prime Minister of India in 2000. He told the channel: “No one is an enemy in politics. There may be ideological differences but this chapter is now closed,” referring to the sour relations between the two parties in the recent past. With the UP Chief Minister, Ms Mayawati, slapping all kinds of charges on Mr Singh, his family and friends, this change of heart is not difficult to understand; he certainly needs a Godmother in Delhi.

But the main problem is that the SP continues to be an integral part of the United National Progressive Alliance, which comprises of the SP and other parties desirous of forming a third front.

The UNPA will hold a meeting on July 3, after which Mr Singh has promised to make his stand clear on the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister insists, as he has always held, that he is not “asking for something that the Government should not be doing. I am only saying you allow me to complete the negotiations.” He conceded that there were concerns on the deal and that is why he was ready to come before Parliament on this issue before operationalising it.

Meanwhile, there is speculation in and outside Delhi on whether Dr Manmohan Singh had indeed said, as is rumoured, that he would not attend the G-8 summit in Japan on July 8 unless the government is allowed to go ahead on completing the safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

On Monday, Dr Singh brushed off a question on this by saying that the nuclear deal was not on the agenda at the G8 summit. But there is little doubt that as far as the Indian media is concerned, the Indo-US nuke deal will be the one issue that will dominate the G8 meet!

The CPI(M), of course, remained unimpressed by the Prime Minister’s assurance of returning to Parliament before operationaling the deal. CPI(M) Politbuo member, Mr Sitaram Yechury, had this scathing comment to make on the latest from the prime minister. “The PM has said there is nothing new in the Left stand; we are saying there is nothing new in PM’s stand.” He added that, even earlier, Dr Singh had said he would return to Parliament after signing the safeguards agreement with the IAEA, etc, “But at that time, it will be more difficult to stop the agreement. They will say the whole world is in favour of the deal.”

The flow of sharp statements from the CPI(M) stable clearly shows that the party is hardening its stand and is pointing all its guns on the prime minister. The Congress leaders/spokesmen are clearly on the defensive and sheepishly expressing their hope that the Left will ultimately take a decision that is “in favour of the country and will not help communal forces.”

Meanwhile, the BJP has already moved into election mode. Mr L. K. Advani has been declared the party’s prime ministerial candidate, he will once again contest from Gandhinagar, and the party is leaving no chances given to it by the beleaguered Congress to score goals.

Shelters for amaranth yatris

The latest opportunity was given to them by the Congress-led coalition in Jammu and Kashmir, which has now become a lame-duck government with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) withdrawing support. Through last week, the J&K Chief Minister, Mr Ghulam Nabi Azad, was in the eye of a storm when his government decided to transfer forest land to the Shri Amarnathji Shrine Board (of which the J&K Governor, Mr N. N. Vohra, is the chairman).

This was opposed by the Hurriyat, the National Conference and his own ally, the PDP, and in the face of mounting protests and violence, a crestfallen Mr Azad has now done a u-turn on this issue.

But he has given enough of a handle for the BJP President, Mr Rajnath Singh, to say his party will mount a nation-wide agitation if the decision to give land to the Board is revoked. So Kashmir is destined to see violence — if the land is given, and also if the land is not given!

The whole issue makes one wonder why the J&K Government cannot take a speedy decision and construct shelters for the yatris. After all, isn’t the Amaranth yatra a major hallmark in the State’s calendar of events? And, “moderate” Hurriyat leaders such as Mirwaiz Umar Farooq are at pains to point out that they have nothing against the yatris getting shelters. If this is indeed true, let the J&K government provide adequate shelters for the Amarnath yatris on land that is not controversial.

It is time political leadership in this country begins to reach out to people who do not necessarily constitute its vote-bank. If the Hurriyat says it has no objection to the Amarnath yatris getting decent shelters, let Mr Azad take them on their word. And let’s wait and see what the PDP leaders such as Ms Mehbooba Mufti have to say on this count.

(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

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