Business Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Friday, Jul 04, 2008 ePaper | Mobile/PDA Version | Audio |
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Opinion
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Economy Columns - Public Policy Note Some prescriptions for a growth push The Growth Report acknowledges that one size does not fit all and those in power in different countries must look at the resources, constraints and problems specific to them and formulate the right strategies to achieve growth. Bhanoji Rao In the early 1990s, when the World Bank released the The East Asian Miracle, quite apart from the debate about whether the economic growth performance of the region could be at all called a miracle, it was a clarion call for the rest of the developing world to wake up and get the right policies in place to achieve sound economic performance. Scholars across the wide spectrum of social sciences researched deep into the factors and parameters that would ensure economic success at the macro level, and translate into well-being at the micro level of individuals and families. At the cost of some oversimplification, we could say that the East Asian economies achieved high rates of growth by ensuring output growth via investments in human and physical capital, the latter ably assisted by encouraging the inflow of foreign direct investment. On the demand side, they benefited from export orientation, which necessitated the production of the right goods and services at the right prices. It goes without saying that proper monetary and exchange rate policies ought to be pursued to ensure that high rates of output growth are not jeopardised in any way by wrong macro policies. Based on the GDP data for 153 economies compiled by the author, average annual growth rates for 153 economies were computed for the quarter century 1980-2004. These reveal that just 13 economies experienced growth rates above 7 per cent, with China being the most populous and prominent in the high growth league. Another point is that in the relatively high growth band of, say, above 4 per cent, one finds a relative dominance of Asian economies. We, Asians, could collectively celebrate, collaborate and co-operate to move ahead. Based on evidence for a much longer span of time, starting from 1950 and ending in 2006, the Growth Commission found that high, sustained growth in the post-War period was witnessed in just 13 economies: Botswana, Brazil, China, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Malta, Oman, Singapore, Taiwan (China), and Thailand. The Commission notes that India and Vietnam may soon join the club. Commission’s PrescriptionsOn May 21 the Commission released its report entitled “The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development”. The Commission, chaired by Economics Nobel Laureate Michael Spence, has 21 members, including Mr Montek Ahluwalia, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman, and another Economics Nobel Laureate, Professor Robert Solow. The Commission was supported by the governments of Australia, Sweden, the Netherlands and the UK, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the World Bank group. The key message of the report is that sustained high growth is not a miracle and is achievable if developing countries’ leaders are committed to achieving it, ensure public investments to complement and support private investment and take advantage of opportunities provided by global linkages. Economic growth is crucial to reducing poverty and increasing the standards of living of the people. Parameters such as equality of opportunity and addressing gender inequality are important too. Achieving growth on a long-term basis calls for leadership, persistence, stamina, pragmatism, transparency and the support of the population. Growth requires high rates of physical and human capital accumulation. Special emphasis must be placed on the education of girls. Engagement with the global economy creates avenues for innovation and market expansion. A strong export sector is a key ingredient in the early stages of growth. Labour mobility across sectors is inevitable and can be gainfully promoted. Finally, in regard to the environment, there is a clear responsibility on the part of the industrialised countries and the burden should not fall on the developing nations. The latter, however, must avoid subsidising energy consumption, which can be counterproductive. Waiting for a ‘Miracle’ Thankfully, the Growth Report acknowledges that ‘one size does not fit all’ and the women and men in power in different countries must look at the resources, constraints and problems specific to them and formulate the right strategies to achieve growth. The report specifically highlights focus areas for four groups of countries. The groups and key prescriptions are expansion of tertiary education in Africa, regional economic integration for small states, better governance for resource-rich countries, and increased investment in higher education in middle-income countries suffering from stalled growth. What is in it for India, given our multi-party democratic set-up? Here is a sample of the seemingly general prescriptions that have strong relevance: First, the report speaks about the possibility of diverse political parties agreeing on a bipartisan growth strategy, to be followed by each during their term in power. In the current context, it would imply the BJP and the Congress reaching such an agreement. Second, an honest civil service must be fostered and maintained. Third, corruption must be fought vigorously and visibly, with our leaders going “out of their way to name and shame offenders, thus sending a clear message to others.” At the end, it was heartening to see the following in the report: “Well-managed long-term migration and well-supervised programmes of temporary migration for work should be part of 21st century globalisation.” If only India is ready with a well-trained and disciplined workforce, there will be no turning back from the high growth path. More Stories on : Economy | Public Policy Note
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