The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon stays muted over peninsula

Thiruvananthapuram, July 9 Tuesday’s well-marked ‘low’ was traced to over Jharkhand and neighbourhood on Wednesday presiding over a vigorous rain session in east, northeast and northwest India even as the monsoon continued to be muted over the peninsula.

Forecasts available up to July 17 did not speak of any big change to the prevailing scenario in the peninsula, though some ventured to suggest a ‘favourable turn’ during the week starting July 18.

Kerala is among the major sufferers from the mounting rain deficit, with the month of June (at -31 per cent) proving the worst since 1991. It was the lowest monsoon rainfall in 18 years for the month according to Met Office records here. The previous worst was June 2002 when the recorded deficit was 28 per cent.

The State is heavily dependent on electricity sourced from its hydel stations whose reservoir levels are receding fast. On Wednesday, the water level at the largest reservoir at Idukki was sufficient for meeting only 11 days of requirement.

HEAVY SHOWERS

Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over north Orissa, Jharkhand, West Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh and southwest Uttar Pradesh during the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast for the North-eastern States and the Indo-Gangetic plains for three days from Friday.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over Jharkhand, north Orissa and north Chhattisgarh. Subsequently, the system is forecast to move northwest and bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Madhya Pradesh for four days from Friday.

The other rain-driving system in the northwest is the upper air cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas, which persisted on Wednesday. This would trigger fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over southwest Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh during the next two days.

The combined activity of the low’ and the upper air circulation within an earshot from each other is expected to cause locally excessive rain events, particularly over Madhya Pradesh during the next few days. On Wednesday, the axis of the monsoon trough passed through Bikaner, Churu, Agra, Kanpur, Allahabad, the centre of the well-marked ‘low’, Chandbali and south-eastwards into the east-central Bay.

NEXT ‘LOW’

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the Head Bay would see another ‘low’ pop up around Sunday (July 13). But the location is considered prejudicial to the prospect of any meaningful spurt of showers for the peninsula.

The system is forecast to track westward for sometime and bring Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and parts of north Andhra Pradesh under its footprint over the next four days. This phase may also see a circulation developing over the east-central Arabian Sea around July 19.

The track for its forward movement would be keenly watched; it is not clear if the expected ‘favourable turn of events’ would be ticked off by this system. But recent history does not inspire confidence since ‘low’s brewing in the region has spun away to the north and then west, away from the southwest coast and dragging the rain-bearing clouds along.

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