The Hindu Business Line : TN varsity cell study shows supply crunch in maize

Coimbatore, July 11 The DEMIC (Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell) of the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University has come up with price forecast for crops such as maize, gingelly and groundnut, expected to be sown during the Tamil month of Aadi.

With less than a fortnight left for the sowing season to begin, farmers are busy preparing their fields, and DEMIC, as it has done in the past, conducted surveys in major markets and analysed the price behaviour of the major crops raised during this season.

The DEMIC price forecast show that maize could move in the Rs 725–850/quintal range band, gingelly in the Rs 44 – 47/kg price band and groundnut at Rs 27-28/kg of pod at harvest (between October and December 2008).

The survey analysis and trade source information signal a supply crunch for maize in the domestic market, leading to higher and wider price range. Increased export estimates (at 2.4 million tonnes, and 380 per cent higher than the earlier year), lesser arrivals from July to September and increased demand from poultry industry are expected to result in supply crunch.

Further, due to suspension of maize exports up to mid-October, trade sources expect the price to rule around Rs 900/quintal in the forthcoming months, but gradually, with the arrival of the new crop in the markets from end-September, the price levels, sources perceive, could decrease and rule steady.

Gingelly arrivals to the local markets is said to have slipped drastically due to unexpected rains during the harvest season. Further, the shift in cropping pattern from gingelly to sunflower, floods in West Bengal (the major gingelly growing belt during the Rabi season) is said to have boosted the price to Rs 52/kg for black variety and to Rs 55/kg for red gingelly during March 2008, 43 per cent higher than previous year.

The price of groundnut pod and kernels had increased between January and May this year, in all the markets in the State. According to the FAO Food Outlook, groundnut, rapeseed, palm kernel and copra production would rise this year, globally, whereas, soyabean and sunflower seed production would take a dip. DEMIC foresees that the anticipated production increase would offset the drop in certain oilseeds and keep the prices firm.

While sharing the indicative price movement, the cell has advised farmers to take up sowing decisions.

More Stories on : Cultivation | Foodgrains | Tamil Nadu

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page