The Hindu Business Line : Rains may revive over Kerala coast this week

Thiruvananthapuram, July 13 Deliverance from the worsening moisture stress in the south handed down by a truant monsoon hinges on early signals of a revival along the southwest coast during the course of this week.

Model runs now seek to offer a throw-back to a setting identified best with monsoon onset conditions – a trough in the southeast Arabian Sea over Lakshadweep forecast later to spin up a likely ‘low’ around July 18.

Lakshadweep, Kerala, coastal Karnataka and southern parts of Tamil Nadu are expected to be brought under the influence of the resulting wet weather, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

Similar scenario

India Meteorological Department (IMD) too has joined the bevy of models visualising this scenario, though it is not still clear if interior peninsula would benefit. Some bet on rain for the southeast coast in north Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The IMD maintained its outlook for scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity to unfold over coastal Karnataka and Kerala from Wednesday. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next 24 hours and may increase thereafter.

The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) spoke about a cyclonic circulation popping up over the North Bay of Bengal and adjoining West Bengal coast around Wednesday. This will trigger a renewed wet spell in the east and northeast which have already witnessed some excess precipitation.

These outlooks go well with those maintained by leading international models suggesting the probability of intense to severe tropical thunderstorm activity increasing from the equatorial Indian Ocean into the monsoon systems of India and Asia during the next few weeks.

The possibility of tropical cyclone spin-ups threatening the Philippines and Southeast Asia concurrently has also been mentioned. West Pacific cyclones moving northeast have implications for the Indian monsoon, though.

INTERACTION SEEN

Back home, the IMD said in its bulletin on Sunday that the prevailing ‘low’ over east Rajasthan had shifted to west Uttar Pradesh. Model predictions point to a westerly trough lying over the northwest, which is likely to interact with the ‘low’.

The ensemble may get a move to the north-northwest and provide good rainfall in the northwest during the next three days. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over West Uttar Pradesh and northwest Madhya Pradesh during the period.

On Sunday, the axis of monsoon trough over land passed through Firozepur, Karnal, the centre of ‘low’, Gonda, Patna, Kolkata and then southeastward into east-central Bay. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Bihar, the Northeast, West Bengal and Sikkim during the next four days.

The three days that follow would see fairly widespread rainfall activity hold strong over the Northeast, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh. Subdued rainfall activity is likely to continue over south peninsula, except Kerala and coastal Karnataka.

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