The Hindu Business Line : Rain surplus gets further eroded to 6%

Thiruvananthapuram, July 17 The cumulative seasonal (June 1-July 15) rain surplus has dwindled to six per cent as on Tuesday with a prolonged dry spell in the southern peninsula chipping away at the base.

The ‘shut out’ in the peninsula (deficit of 34 per cent) has trimmed the number of Met sub-divisions receiving excess or normal rains down to 22. Those in the red (deficient or scanty rains) now count themselves up to 14.

Central India (-3 per cent) was the only other homogenous region in deficit, according to a monsoon status report issued by Dr Ajit Tyagi, Director-General, India Meteorological Department (IMD).

There was not much scope for improvement in peninsular weather during the next week (ending July 23). The situation will be reassessed on July 24, apparently in view of forecasts to the contrary ahead by some international models.

The Noida-based National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has mounted a watch for a cyclonic circulation expected to develop over Orissa coast around Saturday. This would move in westward direction and bring rains to central India and the eastern quadrant.

TWO GAINERS

Northwest India (+77 per cent) has been the major gainer of monsoon precipitation till now, followed far behind by the North-East (+1 per cent). But Met sub-divisions in the peninsula recorded deficits ranging from -64 per cent in Marathawada to 21 per cent (Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura, Gujarat and Lakshadweep).

Other deficits (in percentage figures) were: Rayalaseema (-49); north interior Karnataka (-48); Kerala (-44); Madhya Maharasthra (-44); Vidarbha (-34); coastal Andhra Pradesh (-32); Telengana (-31); south interior Karnataka (-29); coastal Karnataka (-28); and Assam and Meghalaya (-28).

According to the latest analysis, the land-based monsoon trough continued to lie along the foothills of the Himalayas. Forecasts suggest that the trough, especially its eastern end, may stay as such over the next week.

This would mean enhanced rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the North-East, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar. Rainfall is seen perking up over Kerala and coastal Karnataka too.

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