The Hindu Business Line : Drought, moisture stress threat to kharif crops

Mumbai, July 22 It is becoming increasingly clear that drought is threatening large parts of the country. All indicators point to the onset of drought conditions in western and southern India where there is acute moisture stress and planted crops are in danger of withering.

Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala have been reeling under severe moisture stress conditions for over three weeks. Expectations of rains have been belied. Gujarat has now joined the list of States deficit in rainfall, an alarming development considering the criticality of these States to agricultural output in the kharif season.

As of July 16, only 22 out of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions showed excess to normal rainfall, while as many as 14 sub-divisions had suffered deficient to scanty rains.

The situation has worsened in the last few days. Although the India Meteorological Department report of July 16 shows all-India area weighted rainfall still in the positive territory (but a mere four per cent), the next weekly update due on July 23 may worsen the picture.

Little precipitation was experienced in most parts of the country, and more specifically in western and southern region, in the last 5-6 days. Rice, coarse grains, pulses, oilseeds and cotton are the major field crops planted in June/July and harvested by September/October.

Falling acreages

Acreages in some of the crops such as cotton and groundnut have already fallen way behind the normal area. After mid-July, planting slows down considerably and further area expansion is rather limited. July is the month of heaviest rainfall in the four-month south-west monsoon cycle.

Three weeks of the month have already gone, but little to show by way of precipitation. There could be further danger if the deficit is wiped out in a short span of a few days as excessive rains can potentially harm crop growth prospects.

Low output fears

Rains are of course absolutely essential; and precipitation, if any, during the rest of this month and in August and September would help solve drinking water problem and help raise forage crops for cattle.

On current reckoning, a sharp decline production of most of major field crops can be expected. Cotton and sugarcane are sure to suffer serious setback in output as the acreage has shrunk.

Reverses can be expected in rice, coarse cereals (jowar, bajra, maize), pulses (tur/arhar, urad, moong), oilseeds (groundnut, sesameseed) and of course, availability of cottonseed. It may be premature to estimate the eventual kharif 2008 crop size; but clearly, crops are up for a setback.

The poor monsoon conditions have unfortunately come at a time when the country is reeling under inflationary conditions caused by rising food and fuel prices. Poor people especially in rural areas eking out a livelihood through agriculture and related activities are the worst hit because rural incomes have failed to keep pace with the price spiral.

New Delhi is too busy with political parleys. The Government seems to have no time for fighting a bigger battle on the food and farm front. Consumers are going to be the worst hit. The whole world is watching developments in India with great interest, for selfish reasons of course.

Global agricultural commodity markets that have begun to show clear signs of softening (wheat, vegetable oil) may reverse direction on cue from India. A sharply depreciated rupee of recent weeks is sure to add to the woes of consumers as imports (mainly pulses, cooking oils) are likely to be more expensive.

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