The Hindu Business Line : Guarded confidence

Having won the trust vote by a margin that was wider than most analysts had predicted, the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, must be relieved to think he is no longer the “bonded slave” he believed he was. Yet how much freedom he has won himself remains to be seen. The high-stakes drama on Tuesday did have a seamy side with the BJP alleging that an attempt was made to induce three of its members to abstain from voting with the promise of monetary rewards. Whet her it was indeed a serious attempt to buy some members or merely a stunt to project the other side as desperate enough to go to any lengths to win the vote, it has dented the image of Indian democracy as badly as the earlier cash-for-vote scam involving Jharkhand MPs did in 1991. Dr Singh will have to live with that.

There has been some talk, echoed clearly by an invigorated stock market on Wednesday, about the Government, whose hands had been tied by the Left, unleashing a spate of reforms now. The Government would perhaps be the first to admit that the support of a majority of members of the Lok Sabha in a ‘confidence vote’ does not always translate into a carte blanche for each and every legislative initiative it might want to pursue. Indeed, the situation might not even allow it the comfort of pursuing reforms that require only executive action. The opposition, in the past, to some controversial measures, such as ownership restructuring of public sector banks, foreign direct investment in the real estate sector, sanctioning new SEZs, etc., had the support of parties cutting across the spectrum of political ideologies. This is not surprising. New initiatives have their own dynamics in triggering opposition among constituents in a ruling alliance that have a vested interest in preserving the status quo. The Government will know that the compulsions of coalition politics continue to be relevant.

Since the ‘confidence vote’ was as much about civil nuclear co-operation with key countries that make up the Nuclear Suppliers Group, one can expect the Government to pursue the deal vigorously. The Government, and the Prime Minister, in particular, have pushed up the stakes on India ending its nuclear apartheid, at least on the civilian side. It simply cannot afford to face a situation where it goes before the public for their votes less than a year from now with nothing concrete to show by way of arrangements for supply of fuel or equipment for nuclear power generation. The sense of urgency to do a deal on India’s part may not entirely be lost on the countries that supply nuclear technology. Some of them are bound to see this as a window of opportunity to impose their non-proliferation agenda on India. If the events of the last few days were a test of its political resolve, the days ahead are sure to be challenging for the Government on the diplomatic front.

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