The Hindu Business Line : Millennium Development Goals

A joint review of the progress of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) targets in the Asia-Pacific region by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) reveals salient gaps in the implementation of the programmes.

Not all the developing countries in Asia and the Pacific are making sufficient progress; indeed none is currently on track to meet all the goals by the stipulated year 2015. The targets for which the largest number of countries are particularly off-track are: CO{-2} emissions; rural sanitation coverage; the proportion of children underweight; and rural access to clean water.

Asia and the Pacific is home to around 60 per cent of the world’s population so what happens here has a strong bearing on the global picture. The United Nations Millennium Project, for example, has estimated that, in 2005, Asia is home to 71 per cent of the total number of people in the world without access to improved sanitation; 58 per cent of those without access to safe water; 56 per cent of the world’s undernourished; 54 per cent of those living in slums; and accounts for 43 per cent of the world’s child mortality.

Notwithstanding the region being an economic powerhouse, with some of the world’s most dynamic economies, there are dismal human development lags: four million children in the region die before they reach the age of five; 250,000 women die each year during childbirth or from pregnancy-related complications; around 545 million people consume less than the global standard of 2,200 calories per day – constituting 65 per cent of the world’s undernourished.

Asymmetric demography

Overall poverty reduction in the region is inevitably swayed by the achievements of China and India. In China, between 1990 and 2001, the proportion of people in poverty fell from 33 per cent to 16 per cent — and the total number of poor people declined from 381 million to 213 million.

India, also based on the $1-per day line, had a significant reduction: between 1993 and 1999, the proportion of people in poverty fell from 42 per cent to 35 per cent – with the total number of poor falling from 381 million to 354 million.

The countries with the greatest problems include Armenia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Laos, Mongolia and Uzbekistan. Of these, probably the worst off is Bangladesh, where, from 1996 to 2001, poverty had risen to 36 per cent.

Sri Lanka started from a much better position and is attempting to halve a poverty rate – 7.6 per cent – that is already far lower than those of larger South Asian countries: India has a rate of 35 per cent but is classified as “on track” and Pakistan, at 13.4 per cent, is classified as an “early achiever”. In India, the proportion below the minimum daily energy requirement fell between 1991 and 2001, from 25 per cent to 21.4 per cent but, as a result of population increase, the absolute number of hungry people rose: from 217 to 222 million.

A ‘regional road-map’ was presented in May 2007 to the 63rd session of the Escap Commission. The road-map identifies priority areas where progress towards MDGs is slow or lacking. Higher economic growth has been found to fill such gaps faster.

Appraisal of goals

Governments need to decentralise power and authority from higher to lower tiers, and back the MDGs fully at national and international levels. They will also have to institute systems for continuous results monitoring and evaluation to ensure that implementation remains on track.

A quick appraisal of MDG programmes reveals a mixed bag.

Goal 1 (Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger): The region has made dramatic progress, freeing more than 350 million people from extreme poverty between 1990 and 2004. During this period, the proportion of people living on less than $1 (PPP) a day fell from 31 per cent to 17 per cent and, despite population growth, the absolute number of poor people also fell, from 1,009 million to about 641 million.

Goal 2 (Achieve universal primary education): Here, progress has been satisfactory. Most countries have primary enrolment ratios above 80 per cent, and many above 90 per cent. However, dropout rates are high: in Papua New Guinea, for example, around half of children drop out before Grade Five and, in India, Laos and Myanmar, more than one-third do so.

Goal 3 (Promote gender equality and empower women): Progress on eliminating gender disparity in education has been good. Of the five countries that are regressing, the most serious situations are in Afghanistan, where, between 1990 and 1999, the ratio between girls’ and boys’ primary enrolment fell dramatically, from 0.55 to 0.08, and in Pakistan, the proportion has stalled at 0.74.

Goal 4 (Reduce child mortality): The first target is to reduce the under-5 mortality rate by two thirds. Half have already achieved their targets – and all have child mortality rates below 45 per 1,000 live births. The other half, however, are in a very different position. In 2003, the largest number of child deaths was in India, at 2.3 million, followed by China, 650,000, and Pakistan, 481,000. The most shocking rate, however, is in Afghanistan with 257 deaths per 1,000 live births: one child in four dies before reaching age 5.

Goal 5 (Improve maternal health): Progress has been far too slow. The target is to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by three quarters between 1990 and 2015, but the ratio in the average Asian developing country has only declined from 395 to 342. Around two-thirds of Asian maternal deaths, 164,000, take place in India and Pakistan, both among the regressing countries.

Goal 6 (Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases): Overall, the region is off track: between 2001 and 2003 the prevalence among those aged 15-49 in the average Asian country rose from 0.39 to 0.45 per cent. As of 2004, the Asia-Pacific region has over 9 million people living with HIV/AIDS and each year half a million people die.

Tuberculosis too remains a major concern, though between 1990 and 2003 the number of people infected declined from 12.8 to 10.3 million and the number of people dying each year fell from 1.1 to 1.0 million.

Goal 7 (Ensure environmental sustainability): Of the 55 Asia-Pacific developing countries, only five are early achievers, and 10 are on track. This goal also aims to reverse the loss of environmental resources. The most rapid rates of deforestation have been in Micronesia, Myanmar, Indonesia and Malaysia. Another environmental indicator is carbon-dioxide emissions. Between 1990 and 2002, average per capita emissions increased across the region from 2.2 tonnes to 2.5 tonnes.

(The author is a former Managing Director, Concor.)