The Hindu Business Line : As rains play truant, Gujarat may face scarcity; farm output likely to decline

Gandhinagar, July 24 This may, perhaps, be the worst thing to have happened in Gujarat economy since Mr Narendra Modi took over as Chief Minister in October 2001 as scarcity, even a drought, looms large in many parts of the State due to lack of adequate rains.

The 1990s witnessed as many as four drought years when the then Chief Minister Mr Keshubhai Patel’s Government faced severe water crisis — so much so that water trains had to be sent from Gandhinagar to Jamnagar, a distance of nearly 500 km. The State Government declares a region receiving rainfall below 25 per cent as scarcity hit, while the areas that receive rains between 25 and 35 per cent are declared as semi-scarcity hit areas.

Already, lack of rains is a matter of concern for the authorities. After high-level meetings, official sources said that up to 30 per cent area of the State could well be declared “scarcity-hit” if rains fail in the next two weeks, thus adversely affecting the targets of agricultural production.

The State Government’s estimates of nine per cent agricultural growth, worth Rs 37,000 crore in value terms, compared with Rs 34,000 crore last year, could also go haywire.

Due to satisfactory monsoon rains between 2002-03 and 2007-08, the State has seen double-digit growth in agricultural production which has gone up from Rs 9,000 crore to about Rs 34,000 crore during the period.

The rate of agricultural growth rate in Gujarat has been 12 per cent, against the national average of 3-4 per cent in the last five years.

Shortage of rains

As of today, nearly 60 talukas out of 225 are facing shortage of rains. As against the average of 53 per cent rains until July 31, 2007, Gujarat has received only 27 per cent rains until last week-end. Sowing has also been affected: only 57 per cent of the 85.77 lakh hectares under farming has seen sowing so far this year against about 67 per cent till July 20, 2007. The maximum sowing had been reported from eight districts of the Saurashtra-Kutch region.

But Surendranagar district is one of the worst hit as it has witnessed only 16 per cent of rains, while other regions in Saurashtra have received rainfall between 30 and 47 per cent.

In the wake of inadequate rainfall, ground water level is also threatened. Water level in 183 dams in the State this year was only at 29.5 per cent, compared with 65 per cent last year, district-level reports received here said.

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