The Hindu Business Line : Maharashtra’s cane areas face heat of monsoon failure

New Delhi, July 25 The impact on sugar from Maharashtra’s worst ever drought since 1972 will really be felt in the 2009-10 season (October-September).

The State, which produced a third of the country’s total 270 lakh tonnes (lt) of sugar in the 2007-08 season, grows three crops of sugarcane. The first, adsali, or the 18-month crop, is planted during April-July. The second, a 15-month pre-seasonal cane, is sown during August-November, while the third, the suru crop of 12 months, is planted in December-February. Roughly three-fourths of the total cane is constituted by the pre-seasonal crop, with the adsali and su ru plantings accounting for 10 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively.

The cane to be crushed by factories in the ensuing 2008-09 season has already been planted last year. With sugar prices hitting rock-bottom and mills paying less to growers, Maharashtra’s cane area shrunk from 10.88 lakh hectares (lh) to about 8 lh, with diversion taking place to more remunerative crops such as soybean and maize.

Cause for concern

It is this reduced 8 lh already-planted area that is now facing the heat of monsoon rain failure. Indications are that the moisture-stressed cane will tend to lose weight and there could also be a drying up of sucrose content, leading to lower sugar recoveries.

During 2007-08, cane yields in Maharashtra averaged over 81 tonnes a hectare. This time round, it may drop below 70 tonnes, translating into a decline in cane output from 885 lt to around 560 lt.

But that’s not all. Information coming in indicates that the prolonged dry spell is inducing farmers in the State to convert their standing cane for fodder. “It is a cascading effect. When the rains fail, the cattle have no fodder and the shortage pushes up prices. Farmers then choose to harvest the cane straightaway for fodder rather than wait till it matures for supplying to mills,” noted Mr Prakash Naiknavare, Managing Director, Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation (MSCSF). In fact, there are even reports of fodder in Ahmednagar, Sholapur, Pune and Nasik districts currently fetching Rs 125-130 a quintal — more than the Rs 100-odd that farmers got for the fully mature cane supplied to factories this season!

Crushed stock

During the 2007-08 season, Maharashtra mills crushed 761.74 lt of the total cane output of 885 lt — the rest going for seed, feed and chewing purposes or remaining uncrushed due to the liquidity crunch forcing closure of factories.

In the coming season, with production dipping to 560 lt, Mr Naiknavare expects 500 lt to be crushed, though he admits the figure could be lower. Taking an average recovery of 11.4 per cent (against 11.94 per cent in 2007-08), sugar output would fall from 90.96 lt to 57 lt. Things may worsen in the 2009-10 season, for which cane plantings are supposedly underway. “We have hardly had any adsali sowing this time and the Bhima, Ujni and Jayakwadi reservoirs have very little water for pre-seasonal planting,” Mr Naiknavare said.

Water releases

Moreover, the State Government has accorded top priority in water releases for drinking purposes, followed by allocations towards cattle fodder, coarse cereals, oilseeds and pulses. Sugarcane and grape farmers will have the last charge on the little water that is available.

As a result, cane acreage is likely to dip further to 6.5 lh, which translates into 450 lt of cane at 70 tonnes per hectare. Thus, not more than 400 lt would be available for crushing, which, at 11.5 per cent recovery, will give 46 lt of sugar. And even these may turn out to be higher-side projections.

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