The Hindu Business Line : July rainfall lowest in 5 years

New Delhi/Thiruvananthapuram, July 25 It’s not as bad as July 2002. But the current month has so far witnessed the worst monsoon rainfall in the last five years.

The southwest monsoon season (June-September) had begun very well, with June registering an all-India area-weighted precipitation of 217.1 millimetres (mm), which was 21 per cent above the long period average (LPA) for the month.

Out of the country’s 36 meteorological subdivisions, 20 received rainfall in excess of their corresponding LPAs and another eight recorded ‘normal’ deficits (i.e. within 80 per cent of the LPA).

But July — the most crucial month for kharif sowing and early plant growth — has until now turned out to be an absolute disaster. As on July 23, the month has received just 152.9 mm, which translates into almost 23 per cent in deficit. This is lower than the rainfall for the corresponding periods in the previous five years, including 2004 that also saw a dry July (deficit of 20.95 per cent).

But a turnaround is just about materialising along forecast lines in the peninsula, which could help salvage the situation to some extent and prevent it from plumbing deeper into the red. July is usually the wettest month, receiving a third of the aggregate precipitation for the season, with June, August and September roughly accounting for 18, 30 and 19 per cent, respectively.

NOT AS DRY

The ongoing July is, however, not as dry as the one in 2002, which returned an overall deficit of 49 per cent — “the worst in the history of recorded observations”. Incidentally, that year, too, had a normal June, with rainfall being four per cent above the LPA. But the season as a whole ended up with a 19.3 per cent deficit, making it the first ever all-India drought year since 1987.

The current season till now has notched up an overall deficit of two per cent, thanks to the worrisome pattern of rain distribution that saw the entire south and west of the country recording deficient or practically no rains.

However, the last three or four days have seen some revival of rainfall activity in many of the parched regions. India Meteorological Department expects the trend to hold over the next four to five days as well.

WHIRL FORMS

This is being attributed to the latest buzz in the Bay of Bengal, which is forecast to culminate in the formation of a ‘low’. On Friday, a preparatory upper air cyclonic circulation has formed over the northwest Bay off the West Bengal-Orissa coasts. Another cyclonic circulation lay over Gujarat region and neighbourhood.

Related Stories:
Weekend rains likely over peninsula
July rainfall this year may be better than 2002, 2004

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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