The Hindu Business Line : Peninsular rain may hold past Aug first week

Thiruvananthapuram, July 29 An embedded cyclonic circulation in the offshore trough located over Gujarat and the Bay of Bengal-generated well-marked ‘low’ now over land have combined to extend vigorous monsoon conditions over the peninsula.

The mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation stands out for its capacity to ensure sustained output during its stay over the Gujarat region, its favourite haunt. It is known to be much more productive than a monsoon ‘low’ in terms of rainfall generated.

The well-marked ‘low’ from the Bay too has been able to sustain the strength and, on Tuesday, lay over Vidarbha and adjoining areas of east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Both systems are feeding into each other to keep the monsoon in top gear over the region.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the Gujarat-based circulation will cause fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala during the next two days.

On the other hand, the well-marked ‘low’ to its east would bring fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Vidarbha, Marathawada, madhya Maharashtra, Telangana and north interior Karnataka.

FOLLOW-UP SYSTEMS

The IMD cited numerical weather prediction models and current meteorological analysis to suggest the formation of another ‘low’ over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal by Thursday. This is expected to further boost the rainfall activity in the peninsula, and meteorologists have expressed the fear if the excess precipitation from back-to-back systems would not damage the standing crops.

As if this was not enough, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has maintained its watch for yet another ‘low’ in the same region around August 5.

The hyper active monsoon in the peninsula is the direct impact from the periodical movement of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave of enhanced convection across the Indian Ocean. The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services endorsed it while giving out its forecast valid until August 11.

MJO INFLUENCE

It saw increased chances for above average rainfall for south India, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea for the five days ending August 29 (Tuesday) and expected the trend to hold until August 5. This is attributed to the northeastward shift of the MJO wave from the west Indian Ocean into the Bay of Bengal.

Going forward, it saw the rainfall being suppressed over tropical central-eastern Indian Ocean (south of Sri Lanka) in line with the movement further to the north-east by the MJO. The Bay of Bengal, Myanmar, Indo-China and the South China Sea will benefit in the bargain. An inevitable offshoot would be cyclone threat for the South China Sea.

On Tuesday, the monsoon trough passed through Barmer, Ratlam, the centre of the well-marked ‘low’, Titlagarh, Gopalpur and then southeastward into east-central Bay.

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