The Hindu Business Line : Rains in South may relent ahead of next spell

Thiruvananthapuram, July 30 Intensity of rainfall over the peninsula and adjoining central India may get compromised over the next two days after the well-marked ‘low’ over east Vidarbha lost some of its steam overnight from Tuesday.

This has been straightaway attributed to the presence of a contender cyclonic circulation active over the Gujarat region and a western disturbance coming in from the northwest border.

Meteorologists are not surprised, since rarely can two monsoon systems be expected to co-exist over land except under compelling circumstances dictated by very strong flows from both sides of the peninsula.

Expectations were that the well-marked ‘low’ would chart a course to west-northwest over Vidarbha and the rest of the west-central peninsula before landing over the Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat belt. But the contender circulation put paid to these, while raining it down over the Gujarat region.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update that the circulation persisted on Wednesday. The larger offshore trough from the Gujarat coast to Kerala too persisted. Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely along the west coast.

FRESH ‘LOW’

Interpretation of numerical weather prediction models and current meteorological analysis continued to suggest that a fresh ‘low’ is likely to form over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay around August 1 to spur another round of enhanced rainfall activity over peninsular India.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) maintained its watch for another system in the Bay before the first week of July is out. But the belt of enhanced convection is forecast to move north of Kerala and Karnataka in line with the positioning of the passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave.

This will be particularly felt over the five days ending August 11, according to forecasts by the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services. The MJO wave moves from west to east in periodical bursts over the Indian Ocean and the associated belt of anomalous convection has implications for the weather in regions that it passes by.

The five-day period will witness the tail of the MJO wave lashing Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Konkan and Gujarat. The rest of the peninsula would see a belt of suppressed rainfall (left behind by the MJO as it moves north to northeast) creeping in from south of Sri Lanka.

RAINS FOR EAST

Its leading edge would be active also over Chhattisgarh, Orissa, West Bengal, the Bay of Bengal and Indo-China before entering the South China Sea where it could help even spin up even tropical cyclones. On Wednesday, the land-based monsoon trough passed through Bikaner, Jhansi, Pendra, Jharsuguda and then south-eastward into the east-central Bay. An IMD warning said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Madhya Maharashtra and south Gujarat state during next 24 hours.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days. The three days starting Saturday are likely to witness fairly widespread rainfall over peninsular India and the North-east. The monsoon has been active over Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka on Wednesday. Rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala, Lakshadweep and Coastal Karnataka; at many places over South Interior Karnataka; and at a few places over Telangana and North Interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.

Towards the north, monsoon was active over North Konkan. Rainfall occurred at most places over South Konkan and Goa; at many places over South Gujarat region; at a few places over Madhya Maharashtra, Saurashtra and Kutch; and at isolated places over Marathwada and North Gujarat.

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