The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ crosses land, soaks Vidarbha

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 5 Monday’s ‘low’ over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal has crossed the Orissa coast and lay over south Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood on Tuesday.

Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Telangana during the next two days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

The outlook for a successor, and a third-in-the-series ‘low,’ predicted to spin up over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay around Saturday, has been maintained as well.

Another significant forecast pertained to a calibrated rise in rainfall over west coast and Saurashtra-Gujarat during the three days leading up to the evolvement of this new Bay ‘low.’

Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Kammuri that took shape in the South China Sea-Northwest Pacific, is forecast to cross the Chinese coast during the next 24 hours.

Meteorologists are not ruling out the prospect of the west-northwest-moving system rolling over a pulse across India-China to land up in the Bay of Bengal.

Pulses originating from the east in this manner have in the past set up base in the Bay to evolve into ‘low’s. But it is too early to take a call just yet.

MORE RAINS

In its updated assessment for the five-day period ending August 11, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services saw ‘increased chances for above normal rainfall for parts of India, the northern half of the Bay of Bengal, Southeast Asia and the Philippines.’

This would flow out of the residual effects of a weakening but enhanced phase of a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave, which is a periodic burst of anomalous rainfall passing these regions from west to east.

Kerala and Tamil Nadu are seen left out of the footprint of the enhanced rainfall belt. Among States benefiting most are northern parts of Karnataka; entire Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa; southwest Rajasthan, parts of Haryana and the Northeast.

Extended forecasts for the following week (ending August 18) spoke of weather conditions ‘considered normal’ for the week. No negative trend in rainfall has been indicated for any part of the country during this period.

‘LOW’ ACTIVE

The prevailing ‘low’ over land helped unfold active monsoon conditions over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during the last 24 hours ending Tuesday morning. Rainfall occurred at most places over Telangana, at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and even north interior Karnataka.

Rainfall was also reported from a few places over Rayalaseema, Kerala and coastal and south interior Karnataka. Only isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu while dry weather prevailed in Lakshadweep.

Forecasts for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to occur over Telangana and north interior Karnataka. Isolated heavy rain has been forecast also for coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, the Ghat areas of South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema during the same period.

In the Maharashtra-Gujarat belt, rainfall occurred at most places over north Konkan, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and south Gujarat region. Many places over south Konkan-Goa, a few places over north Gujarat region and Kutch and isolated places over Saurashtra too recorded overnight rain.

Forecasts said rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Konkan-Goa and Marathawada; at many places over Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat and Saurashtra, and at a few places over Kutch.

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