The Hindu Business Line : Managing the Chinese challenge

While India’s trade with China has developed significantly in recent years, there are concerns at not only the spiralling trade deficit, but also the predominant percentage of raw materials in India’s exports. Ultimately, China’s approach to India will be determined primarily on the basis of its assessment of India’s economic and military strength and the sagacity and acumen of its political leadership, says G PARTHASARATHY.

The Nathu La pass… China and India have demonstrated recently how they share common interests on issues such as world trade.

Ridiculing the leadership of the CPI (M) for its anachronistic postures and policies, during the July 22, 2008 Parliamentary debate, the Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, noted that while India had done well by averaging an annual 8.9 per cent economic growth, China had adopted pragmatic policies to ensure continuing and rapid economic growth . He averred: “I do not envy China, I wish to emulate China”. Implicit in the Finance Minister’s comments, was the assertion that India’s modern day Communists were articulating policies, which would ensure that whether it was on the question of its independent nuclear deterrent or its strategic relations with the US, India remained weak and vulnerable to Chinese pressures. Mercifully, the Manmohan Singh Government has belatedly broken free of being a “bonded slave” of its “supporting” parties.

‘Great global power’

China’s rulers have a very clear understanding of how they should go about acquiring “comprehensive national power,” which is essential for China becoming a “global great power that is second to none” by 2049, which marks the centenary of the establishment of the Peoples’ Republic. China seeks to achieve this by sustained economic growth backed by unhindered access to global natural resources and joining the process of globalisation. All this is to be backed by a strong military muscle, including expanding maritime power and a powerful nuclear deterrent, capable of global deterrence, in protecting Chinese interests.

Despite differences over Taiwan, China seeks to engage the US extensively and benefit from American educational and technological advances and access to the American markets and investment. Moreover, while China finds its marriage of convenience with Russia useful in moderating American aggressiveness on international issues, especially in the UN Security Council, it uses American-Russian rivalries to acquire weapon, space technology and energy resources from the Russians. It deals with Japan by promoting fears of a revival of Japanese militarism, while deriving immense benefit from Japanese investments and trade.

Nuclear weapons

Historically, China has treated those it regards as less than equal as a “vassal state”. But despite all the rhetoric of “Hindi Chini Bhai-Bhai” China does not regard India as an equal, but as a “South Asian Regional Power” that can and should be “contained”. This is evident from its demand that India should give up its nuclear weapons — a view echoed by its Stalinist comrades in India. China has addressed the nuclear deal with India, which would end India’s global nuclear isolation, alleging that the deal has “strong symbolic significance for India in achieving its dream of a powerful nation”.

China has lobbied discretely with NSG members to reject moves to end global nuclear sanctions against India. The Chinese went to extraordinary lengths to pressurise South-East Asian nations against inviting India as a member of the East Asia Summit. They joined Pakistan to sabotage India’s efforts to secure Permanent Membership of the Security Council.

While forging a Sino-US Axis during the Nixon, Carter and Clinton Administrations, primarily to contain and confront India and even Vietnam, the Chinese have cried foul every time India has sought to bolster multilateral cooperation with democracies such as the US and Japan. In this effort, they find our Communists, like their Pakistani “all weather” friends, as useful allies.

Russian-Chinese bonhomie

China’s recent assertiveness in laying claim to Tawang and indeed the whole of Arunachal Pradesh makes it clear that, like with its other neighbours, China will settle its border problems with India only when it detects that a weakened and isolated India will yield to its demands. To this end, China will continue to boost Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile potential and provide Pakistan with its latest weapons, built with technology obtained primarily from Russia and to a lesser extent from countries such as Israel and Ukraine. China has agreed to provide and co-produce 250 advanced JF-7 fighter aircraft and two squadrons of J-10 multirole attack aircraft to Pakistan. The Chinese received design assistance and the engine for the JF-17 fighter from the Russians.

The J-10 is based on the design of the Israeli LAVI fighter and on knowhow of the F-16, which China obtained from F-16 fighters supplied by the US to Pakistan. Here again, the engine is Russian. Thus, while our DRDO struggles to deliver a Light Combat Aircraft to the Air Force, China pragmatically uses foreign designs and equipment to its advantage. China is now developing a fifth generation ‘Stealth’ fighter to match the latest aircraft in the American armoury. One hopes that India and particularly the DRDO will show greater realism in collaboration with the Russians, in building a similar futuristic aircraft for our air force.

While the US, Russia and Japan believe that China’s power has to be “managed” by increasing engagement and cooperation, they realise the need for a viable balance of power in Asia. Behind the facade of Russian-Chinese bonhomie, are growing Russian apprehensions of China’s misuse of advanced military space technology that Russia provided to China in the recent past. The Chinese have illegally replicated and reverse-engineered Russian space and Defence technology.

Russian concerns have also risen because of Chinese inroads into what they regard as their backyard in Central Asia and the move of around three million Chinese settlers into the vast open spaces of Russian Siberia. Demographic change in Siberia is a frightening prospect for the Russians.

Balance of power

While the US finds it necessary to seek China’s co-operation in the UN Security Council and in dealing with issues like North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme, there appears to be growing consensus in the US on India’s role in developing a viable balance of power in Asia. Japan also holds similar views.

The real challenge to Indian diplomacy lies in how to utilise this situation to India’s advantage by securing enhanced cooperation in areas such as space and military technology transfers and in promoting ties on issues ranging from agriculture and infrastructure development, to energy security.

China’s policies of ‘containment’ need to be dealt with by a network of measures of counter-containment involving countries such as Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Japan, apart from more self-assured handling of economic relations with Taiwan and a less apologetic approach than we currently have on Tibet.

While India’s trade with China has developed significantly in recent years, there are concerns at not only the spiralling trade deficit, but also the predominant percentage of raw materials in India’s exports. More seriously, there are concerns in both Bangladesh and India at reports that China is considering diversion of the waters of the Brahmaputra River, for its own use.

Given India’s size and potential, it is inevitable that any relationship with China will have elements of cooperation and competition. China and India have demonstrated recently how they share common interests on issues, such as world trade and global warming.

This was evident in the Doha Round WTO discussions, where India and China found themselves ranged against the US and the EU. But, in an ultimate analysis, China’s approach to relations with India will be determined primarily on the basis of its assessment of India’s economic and military strength and the sagacity and acumen of India’s political leadership.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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