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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 6 The Konkan-Mumbai-Gujarat belt is bracing to deal with a monsoon pulling itself together around a fresh ‘low’ in the Bay of Bengal and a ‘monsoon vortex’ over Gujarat from this weekend.

The ‘vortex’ would represent a hyperactive phase of the monsoon, and the Konkan-Mumbai belt is a favourite haunt for this rare weather feature.

The vortex is a strong, circular-moving and comparatively short-lived system embedded in the offshore trough straddling the west coast. It can trigger a cloudburst within an area extending to as much as 30 km.

In meteorological parlance, it is a component of a very strong and elaborate monsoon system. The timing and place of formation are unpredictable and a vortex mostly escapes the notice of the best weather models.

A vortex is formed when strong westerlies blasting into the natural barrier put up by the Western Ghats are made to rotate around their own axis with such intensity as to trigger a drencher over a command area.

Some meteorologists believe that it was a vortex that caused the Mumbai deluge of 2005. The more strong the westerlies, the more intensively active will be the vortex and more destructive its impact.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, the activity over Gujarat could go on for three to five days. The vortex may spend itself out after 24 hours or so, but a larger low-pressure area would have formed in the neighbourhood to pick the pieces of the crumbling system.

This ‘low’ may later lift itself to higher levels to settle as a mid-tropospheric cyclone, a long-haul rain engine that, once again, Gujarat is known to cradle under strong monsoon conditions. This could explain the extended rain activity forecast for the region.

One part of the ‘low’ could later move west and slide into the northeast Arabian Sea to intensify even while moving away from the coast. Over the mainland, however, the incoming ‘low’ from the Bay would have set up an interaction with the Gujarat system to throw up a larger trough and enhanced rainfall across the north peninsula.

Meanwhile, the monsoon has been active over Konkan-Goa and south madhya Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning. Rainfall occurred at most places over Konkan-Goa, south madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and south Gujarat region; at many places over north madhya Maharashtra and north Gujarat; and at isolated places over Saurashtra-Kutch.

Forecasts for the next 48 hours said heavy rainfall is likely at a few places with very heavy falls at isolated places over Konkan and Goa. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is indicated for isolated places over madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat and Saurashtra too.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s ‘low’ over south Chhattisgarh became less marked. The monsoon trough passed through Anupgarh, Pilani, Agra, Fatehpur, Hazaribag, Balasore and then southeastward into east-central Bay on Wednesday.

This land-based trough featured embedded cyclonic circulations over Haryana and Jharkhand, the latter being the remainder of the ‘low.’ The offshore trough from the Maharashtra coast to Kerala persisted, which is likely to cause fairly widespread rainfall activity along the west coast.

Elsewhere in the peninsula, the monsoon was active over Telangana until Wednesday morning. Rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Karnataka, at many places over Telangana and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Rayalaseema and Kerala.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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