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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 8 Northwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal off the Orissa and West Bengal coasts is on Friday hosting the latest of the ‘low’s that beat forecasts by a full day.

The system is likely to become more marked, according to an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update, and is expected to track a west-northwest course into the mainland.

Fairly widespread rainfall has been forecast over Orissa, south Chhattisgarh and north Andhra Pradesh during the next three days before the system takes the rain belt into Maharashtra and later Gujarat.

The west coast is waiting in anticipation for the unfolding of what could be an `unusually productive spell’ of pulsating rains over the next few days.

Fishermen have been advised not to venture out into the sea in view of the possibility of westerly winds speeding up to 45-50 km/hr gusting to 55 km/hr off the Goa-Maharashtra during the next 24 hours. The condition of the sea is expected to be rough featuring westerly waves.

An outlook is still being maintained for a follow-up ‘low’ in another eight to 10 days’ time. This is expected to result from a stray circulation drifting in from the erstwhile South China Sea storm, Kammuri, setting up base in the Bay.

Latest medium-range outlook suggests that tropical thunderstorm activity might get a leg-up across the equatorial Indian Ocean during the rest of August, which would get mirrored in the larger monsoon system.

The warm northwest Pacific Ocean bristles with the possibility of throwing up an occasional cyclone. Convective activity in the Indian and west Pacific oceans is likely to remain high leading up to the winter, as per this outlook.

This would have a favourable impact on the northeast monsoon that sets over the southern peninsula during mid-October. But these are early days yet to make any forecast with conviction, according to meteorologists here.

A warning valid for two days said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Orissa, south Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, madhya Maharashtra and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Forecast for the next three days ending Wednesday next spoke has warned of enhanced rainfall over coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and Gujarat. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over the Northeast and Northwest India.

Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending Friday morning saw rainfall at most places over coastal Karnataka, at many places over south interior Karnataka and at a few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and north interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Rayalaseema, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In the west-central peninsula, the monsoon was active over south Konkan and Goa.

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