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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 11 Sunday’s depression over north interior Orissa underwent two rounds of weakening and lain as a conventional ‘low’ over east Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood on Monday.

The monsoon continued its vigorous run over Konkan, Goa and madhya Maharashtra while it was active over Marathawada during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.

Rainfall occurred at many places over Saurashtra and Kutch and at a few places over Gujarat.

Very heavy to exceptionally heavy rainfall was reported from interior Maharashtra and Konkan-Goa even as the rain belt waited to make a decisive foray into Saurashtra-Gujarat.

Some of the exceptionally heavy to very heavy rainfall recorded (in cm) are as follows: Mahabaleshwar-49, Bhira-34, Gaganbawda-33, Matheran, Gandevi-31, Poladpur-29, Mahad, Valpoi, Radhanagari and Jalalpur-26 each and Dharmpur-25.

In the Ghat areas, the rain fury was more revealing, as can be inferred from some of the accumulations (in cm) recorded over this elevated geography: Koyna-49, Lonavala-44, Shirgaon-42, Tamini-41, Dawdi-39, Ambone-36, Walvan-34, Dungarwadi-30, Khopoli-29 and Bhivpuri-28.

Forecast for the next 24 hours said that heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to occur at a few places over Gujarat during the next 24 hours.

Heavy rainfall has been forecast for a few places with very falls at isolated places over Konkan and Goa during the same period.

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Senior Advisor to the Department of Science and Technology, there are ‘bright’ chances of a mid-tropospherical cyclone (MTC) shaping up over Gujarat as the Bay ‘low’ drifts in closer.

An MTC sits at height higher than a conventional ‘low’ but stands out in terms of better output and staying power. The Konkan-Gujarat belt is a favourite hangout for an MTC system.

The basic monsoon flows are expected to stay strong over the next five days.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely at isolated places over madhya Maharashtra and Saurashtra during the next two days and heavy rainfall at isolated places over Marathawada.

Farther to the south, the monsoon was vigorous over Karnataka and active over Telangana and Kerala. Rainfall occurred at most places over Karnataka, Kerala and Telangana. Kottigehara and Agumbe recorded extremely heavy rainfall of 28 cm and 25 cm respectively.

Forecast for the next two days said isolated heavy-to-very heavy rain is likely to occur over coastal Karnataka and the Ghat areas of south interior Karnataka. Isolated heavy rain is also likely to occur over north interior Karnataka, Kerala and Telangana during the same period.

The monsoon trough passed through Phalodi, Umaria, Ambikapur, Balasore and then southeastward to east-central Bay of Bengal.

The offshore trough from Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast too persisted. It is likely to cause fairly widespread rainfall activity along the west coast.

Current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggested widespread rainfall over the northeast and adjoining east India with isolated heavy to very heavy falls during the next four days.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Rajasthan, and west Madhya Pradesh.

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