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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug. 13 The monsoon drenchers exploding over Konkan and Gujarat may not have needed the spark from the dynamics associated with a vortex (strong whirl in air) or a mid-tropospheric cyclone (MTC).

The exceptionally heavy to very heavy falls are being attributed to the sheer strength of the flows and the ‘lateral shear’ they managed to generate.

While vertical wind shear is the nemesis of sea-based monsoon systems, its lateral component (lateral wind shear) actually aids convection. Strong westerly flows between latitudes 15 deg N and 18 deg N (Konkan-Mumbai belt) can thus precipitate heavy rains.

Rainfall events aggregating to nearly 50 cm within a day were recorded one more than one occasion during this phase. Mahabaleshwar in Maharashtra was pulverised in this manner for three consecutive days.

Gujarat saw rains ranging from 10 cm to 35 cm batter not less than 35 stations on Monday alone. Excessive rainfall soaked Konkan and Goa, and more is forecast what with the helpful offshore trough seen holding strong for another week.

The current circulation driving the rains in the region has to die down first before an MTC can develop, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Senior Advisor to Department of Science and Technology. The MTC sits at a perch higher than that of a conventional ‘low’ but is at least twice as productive.

Dr Gupta said that active monsoon conditions would persist over the country during the next 6-7 days. Contrary to forecasts, the eastern end of the monsoon trough will stay anchored in the Bay in view of signals of another ‘low’ brewing.

Leading models, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy, have supported this outlook.

This system has been there for the asking ever since a South China Sea tropical storm, Kammuri, crossed China coast and headed in a west-northwest direction. Kammuri is expected to roll in a pulse that would get accentuated in the Bay to the immediate west.

On Wednesday, the monsoon was vigorous over Gujarat, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, and active over North Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Konkan-Goa and Saurashtra-Kutch

Rainfall occurred at most places over Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Kerala, Gujarat, Konkan-Goa and at many places over North Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, and North Madhya Maharashtra, and at a few places over South Madhya Maharashtra.

Forecasts for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Coastal Karnataka, Konkan-Goa and Gujarat, at many places over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Interior Karnataka, south Madhya Maharashtra and at a few places over North Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.

Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over Coastal Karnataka and the Ghat areas of South Interior Karnataka and Gujarat during the next 24 to 48 hours. Heavy to very heavy rainfalls are likely to occur at isolated places over Konkan-Goa and South Madhya Maharashtra.

Tuesday’s ‘low’ has left behind a cyclonic circulation over East Rajasthan on Wednesday. It is likely to interact with mid-latitude westerly trough. This will cause fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Rajasthan till Thursday.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over parts of northwest India until Friday. Fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over the Northeast, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Gangetic plains during the three days.

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