The Hindu Business Line : End of Musharraf era, but…

With General Musharraf finally announcing his resignation as Pakistan President, the days ahead are clearly going to be messy for Pakistan. While it cannot be denied that the Indo-Pak peace dialogue made some progress when the General was in command, the path towards peace and amity is now going to be long and tortuous, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

General Pervez Musharraf steps down as Pakistan President.

After 10 days of hectic political manoeuvring and a couple of years of losing the nation’s confidence, General Pervez Musharraf finally saw the writing on the wall and volunteered on Monday to resign as Pakistan President. If he had not chosen this path, he would have had to face an impeachment that contained serious charges ranging from swindling millions of dollars of American aid meant for the country to various other acts that were a gross violation of the Pakis tan Constitution. Yet another Pakistani dictator has met an inglorious end.

General Musharraf’s decision — he announced in a televised address that he had decided to put “national interest above personal bravado” — put an end to nine years of uninterrupted, but volatile, rule over one of the most troubled nations in the world. Ever since the PPP-PML-N coalition government assumed power in Pakistan a few months ago, the former Pakistan Army Chief’s ouster was only a matter of time. The happiest man in the world to see the Pakistan President’s exit will undoubtedly be Mr Nawaz Sharif, who, as the Prime Minister of Pakistan, had been sacked in a bloodless coup by the General nine years ago — in November 1999.

Even in the run up to the recent elections in Pakistan, Mr Sharif, who had been forced by Mr Musharraf to live in exile in Saudi Arabia — the alternative would have been death as had been meted out to another Pakistan Prime Minister, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, by yet another Pakistan dictator, General Zia ul Haq — was initially not allowed to return to Pakistan. On his first return, Mr Musharraf’s regime had humiliated him by bundling him back onto an airplane and packing him to Saudi Arabia. It was only later, and on pressure put by Mr Musharraf’s friend and “ally”, the US, that Mr Sharif was allowed to return home, but not permitted to contest the elections.

At that time, the Pakistan President was busy mending fences with the PPP leader, Benazir Bhutto, and keeping Mr Sharif out of not only the electoral race, but also the country. But after her return to Pakistan last year, when Benazir saw for herself how unpopular the General had become in the country and, more important, how close he was perceived to be to Washington, she went all out to condemn him. She had to do this to convince Pakistanis that contrary to popular belief, she had made no “deal” with the Americans that as payback for facilitating her return, she would allow President Musharraf to continue in office after her return to power.

Her tragic assassination in December 2007 changed the entire political equation in Pakistan with the PPP and the PML-N forming an unlikely coalition.

But as the PPP-led coalition dithered on impeaching President Musharraf, which was the one-point agenda and immediate priority of Mr Nawaz Sharif, he even pulled out of the coalition government. For a while, it looked as though the US had managed to sweet talk Mr Asif Ali Zardari, the late Benazir’s husband and the real power fulcrum in Pakistan, into allowing President Musharraf to complete his term. But with Mr Sharif throwing a fit at the go-slow on the Musharraf impeachment, the PPP-led government had no other option but to haul the President over the coals.

Pakistan army stands back

After holding on for almost 10 days and denying that he would resign, the former army chief finally blinked. Ironically, just as he let down the man who had anointed him Army Chief, President Musharraf has now been let down by General Parvez Kayani, whom he had anointed army chief not so long ago. As is common knowledge in Pakistan, whether it happens to be civilian or military rule, nothing significant can happen in the country without the support of the Pakistani army. But this time around, General Kayani made it clear a few days ago that the army would play no role in the impeachment announced by the Pakistan government. His unequivocal stance left little choice for President Musharraf, who finally announced his resignation and patted himself for putting Pakistan’s economy back on the road to good health, saving the country from being declared a ‘terrorist state’, and always serving “national interest”.

US loses a key ally

The one entity that would be worried by Musharraf’s exit would surely be the US, which had declared, and pampered him, as one of its biggest “allies in the war against terror”. For the US, the exit of such an ally has come at the most inappropriate moment; the tribal areas in the north western regions of Pakistan are increasingly coming under the control of Islamic fundamentalists. It is common knowledge that in this region the writ of neither the Pakistan Government nor the Army runs; it is the tribal leaders who wield real power and in these areas ‘Washington’ is easily the most hated word.

The hunt now starts for the next Pakistan President; there are enough indications that despite his denials, Mr Zardari would like to hold this post but it is doubtful if Mr Sharif would agree to this. Despite all the handshakes and smiles before media cameras, there is little love lost between the two leaders. There is every likelihood of the PML-N chief demanding this post for his party, in return for its support of the coalition. The decision will have to be taken within 30 days, as stipulated by the Pakistani Constitution.

But the days ahead are clearly going to be messy for Pakistan. While the troubled nation has been spared the long-drawn-out ugly impeachment battle, the frequent jolts the coalition government has received in its four months’ existence does not inspire much confidence in its stability. The growing insurgency in the tribal regions requires deft handling; with as much toughness as compassion and understanding, and the present Government has not yet displayed any evidence that it has the talent or the statesmanship to handle the volatile situation and bring in a healing touch. If the situation is not controlled quickly and tactfully, Pakistan faces the danger of losing yet another part of the country. Were this to happen, one nation that will not shed any tears is the Hamid Kazai-ruled Afghanistan, which has been accusing Pakistan of fomenting trouble on its soil.

Impact on India

So how will President Musharraf’s exit impact India? While it cannot be denied that the Indo-Pak peace dialogue made some good progress when the General was in total command, at best the process moved in fits and starts, as there was much talk but little action. Those who dealt with President Musharraf during the NDA regime say that the General did not always deliver what he said he would.

The BJP is still smarting at the manner in which he carried off a mini coup through his televised breakfast with the media during the Agra summit in July 2001. But, the summit collapsed and the General left in a huff, cancelling his trip to the Ajmer durgah, as India refused to give him the joint agreement that he sought.

But, then, the reality of Indo-Pak relations is that there is going to be no short-cuts and the path towards peace and amity, if it ever comes, will be long and tortuous. Sure, during the early years of his reign, when he held total sway over Pakistanis who were fed up with their corrupt politicians, a solution to the Kashmir problem could have been thrashed out. The sentiment on either side of the border during those years was that if the two countries were to sort out their contentious problems, the best opportunity would be when President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee were at the helm.

Unfortunately that did not happen. And, ironically, even as the Kashmir Valley is once again slipping into the grasp of separatist elements and azadi slogans are once again being raised, more and more hardliners in the Valley are fondly remembering the Vajpayee era. The general sentiment is that while a BJP-led government pushed so hard for finding a solution to the Kashmir problem, the present Congress-led government has not taken forward the Indo-Pak dialogue over Kashmir.

(Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in)

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