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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug 21 The monsoon has managed to maintain a surplus unchanged from the last week (ending August 13) despite suffering a slight reversal in the interregnum.

The surplus of two per cent from a grand revival during that week has been maintained despite blotches over South and West-Central India during the immediately next week ending Wednesday (Aug 20).

The Met subdivisions of Marathawada (-41 per cent), Kerala (-29 per cent), Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-28 per cent) worsened their deficit while north interior Karnataka (-23 per cent) fell back into the red. Assam and Meghalaya at the threshold -20 per cent showed slight improvement.

The number of subdivisions recording excess and normal rainfall was less by one at 31 this week, but two more than during the comparable period in 2007, a surplus monsoon year. On the other hand, ‘deficit’ subdivisions counted one more than the last week but two less than last year.

The week-on-week performance was marred by huge cut-backs in recorded rainfall in Marathawada (-79 per cent), west Madhya Pradesh (-78 per cent), Vidarbha (-74 per cent) and north interior Karnataka (-63 per cent). Some good rainfall recorded over north, north-west and eastern region prevented the scales from tilting into the negative overall.

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s cyclonic circulation (not amounting to ‘low’) over north Bay of Bengal moved west overnight to stay parked over Orissa on Thursday, promising scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Orissa and Chhattisgarh during the next two days.

The eastern end of the all-important land-based trough hosting this circulation has not fully succeeded in persuading the western end to move south in tandem to its monsoon-friendly alignment.

A persisting upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan appears to be the dominant system calling the shots for the time being. It had moved in from the overnight perch over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh.

An India Meteorological Department update said that the western end of the monsoon trough has shifted only slightly southwards. On Thursday, it passed through Ferozepur, Muzzafarnagar, Shahjapur, Varanasi, Dhanbad, Sagar Islands and further southeastward into the east-central Bay.

Under this scenario, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over northwest region, east Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh during the two days. The next three days ending August 26 will see an increase in rainfall over the northeast, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Generally subdued rainfall is indicated over the remaining parts of the country.

Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana continued to register isolated to locally heavy rainfall benefiting from what are seasonally atypical atmospheric features associated with ‘weak monsoon’ conditions prevailing elsewhere in the country.

In the northwest Pacific, the raging Typhoon Nuri ramped itself up briefly to Category-2 status on the approach to extreme north Philippines. But Nuri is now forecast to wind down to being Category-1 as it barrels towards Hong Kong. Its track will be watched eagerly for clues on likely impact on prevailing monsoon weather over India.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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