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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug. 22 Medium-term forecasts suggest a spurt in rainfall for the extreme southern peninsula towards the month-end even as advance predictions pointed toward a normal northeast monsoon (or reverse monsoon) from mid-October.

The International Research Institute (IRI) at the University of Columbia came out with its latest forecasts for northeast monsoon on Friday. Sri Lanka is tipped to receive above normal rainfall during the season.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts too supported this outlook but went on to suggest that September-October-November may see slightly above normal rains along coastal Kerala.

The northeast monsoon sets in over peninsular India after predecessor southwest monsoon exits the landmass by September 30. Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka are among major beneficiaries.

Meanwhile, the weather-making upper air cyclonic circulation over Orissa persisted and presided over a wet session that covered the neighbourhood in East and Central India.

This circulation is forecast to move south-southwest into interior peninsula and push rains first into the rest of central India (east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and north Andhra Pradesh) before foraying into Tamil Nadu.

The southward-bound rains will culminate in a flare-up over the extreme south peninsula as they run straight into a rain belt progressing from the equatorial Indian Ocean (covering Sri Lanka and the seas to its south). The rains may last into the first week of September, according to forecasts by the US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies.

On Friday, the other upper air cyclonic circulation over West Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas of northwest Madhya Pradesh and East Rajasthan too persisted and drove rains into Northwest India. India Meteorological Department said that the system would continue to dump scattered to fairly widespread rains over Haryana, Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

Rain or thundershowers may later spread to Konkan-Goa, a few places in south Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat region and at isolated places in north Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and Saurashtra-Kutch.

Rains are seen scaling up fresh over the flooded tracts in East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeast from Monday. The three days leading up to Monday will witness thundershowers at many places over Andaman and Nicobar, at a few places over Tamil Nadu and coastal Karnataka, Kerala and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

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