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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Aug. 25 Cyclonic whirls situated respectively over east and southeast India were the two reigning major weather-making systems over the landmass on Monday even as a southerly surge promised to stir up the skies over extreme peninsular south from the month-end.

The chances for above average rainfall for the equatorial Indian Ocean (covering Sri Lanka and Indian peninsular south) are still looking good, according to the Climate Prediction Centre of US National Weather Services.

This is being attributed to the ‘increasingly favourable low-level winds and areas of above average sea surface temperatures’ (that aid convection and precipitation).

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies too maintained its watch for the monsoon surge from Equatorial Indian Ocean and Southwest Arabian Sea off the Kerala coast during the week ending September 1 and into the next.

On Monday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) too said scattered rainfall activity is likely to start over extreme south peninsula from Wednesday onwards for at least the next three days.

The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting saw a `low’ developing southwest of Kerala and steering rains into and beyond the State’s borders during this phase. And this would be the time when Monday’s whirl over South Orissa would wind its way down further to coalesce with the southerly surge.

This will bring rains to bear down progressively over the path it crossed - Telengana, Vidarbha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu during this period.

The IMD said the monsoon trough passed through Amritsar, Dehradun, Bareilly, Fatehpur, Siddi, Raigarh, Gopalpur and thence southeastwards into East-central Bay of Bengal on Monday.

The cyclonic circulation over south Orissa persisted as did the other one over southeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Madhya Pradesh. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is forecast over north Andhra Pradesh, South Chhattisgarh and South Orissa and West Madhya Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over the northeast, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim for the next two days. Fairly widespread rainfall has been predicted also for the Northeast, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Bihar during the five days.

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