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Regardless of the side of the fence one finds oneself on the Indo-US nuclear agreement, one should not stint one’s admiration for the perseverance with which the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, has steered the deal through various difficult stages these last three years and been victorious in securing the go-ahead from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). This is certainly a feather in his cap.

There is not the least doubt about the 123 Agreement also being approved by the US Congress in all probability before the Presidential election itself. The coast is thus clear for India to begin shopping for the needed fuel, equipment and technology for nuclear power generation.

There is no point any more in harping on the consequences of conducting a test or apprehensions about undisrupted fuel supplies. India has to take what comes. To test or not to test — that’s not the question after the explicit pledge of a voluntary moratorium given by the External Affairs Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee.

There is also no force in the argument that India can bypass the US if it makes for trouble and separately cajole other major suppliers such as France, Russia or Japan. The India-specific waiver given by the NSG requires all member countries to keep exchanging details of contracts entered into by them and ask for consultations if there is any noticeable departure.

Obviously, the idea is to ensure that all members fall in line with the letter and spirit of the NSG waiver and keep the playing field level without adopting underhand means to flout the guidelines. It is highly unlikely, therefore, that any one country will favour India to the detriment, or in defiance, of the US.

In other words, the NSG and the US are in this together and it will be a case of irrational exuberance to entertain hopes of driving a wedge between them.

The real question still waiting to be asked is whether the future nuclear power scenario will justify the great lengths to which the Government has gone to make the deal a reality. Even according to the energy planners, the nuclear power generation in 2025 will be only of the order of 20,000 MW as against a presumed total installed capacity of 300,000 MW — or just a little more than 6 per cent compared to 2.8 per cent now.

Even this addition is contingent upon ideal considerations: Timely arrival of fuel and reactors, timely completion of plants without cost and time overruns and timely flow of minimum funds of Rs 200,000 crore, at Rs 10 crore per MW at present prices. There is every chance of each of these factors going awry.

Further, the international spot price of uranium has quadrupled between 2005 and 2007, and as per a market study, is expected rise by another 58 per cent in the near future. There is no knowing what it will be by 2025. A fund flow of Rs 300,000 crore is what the Government should guarantee if the nuclear power generation should meet the target.

A futuristic estimate cost of nuclear power, factoring in all the imponderables, is anywhere between Rs 6 and Rs 18 per unit, as against Rs.2.50 per unit of thermal power. This means the Government going in for heavily subsidising nuclear power, calling for mobilisation of resources on a huge scale.

Leaving aside fixations of ideology, sovereignty and the like, much the better course would be to orient the energy strategy towards conservation, more efficient performance of the existing plants, reducing the transmission and distribution losses, exploiting the untapped hydel potential and developing renewable and non-conventional energy resources — all of which together would yield at least five times more than the envisaged quantum of nuclear power as of 2025 at a fraction of the cost.

If, by that time, we are also on top of the three-stage thorium route to nuclear power generation, we can dispense with the deal almost in its entirety.

Even now it is not too late to plan on these lines.

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