The Hindu Business Line : The fusion at Vienna and after

The end of India’s isolation among the nuclear elite of the world, when it does materialise after a clearance from the US Congress, will send waves of confidence in the international business community about India’s forward march on the global economic platform. But before that, India will have to set many things in order, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT.

They say it is always the darkest before dawn. Could the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) waiver that we finally got in Vienna on Saturday, although after a long and tortuous journey, spell the beginning of the end of dismal news at home? The NSG waiver, in which the US played an astonishingly vigorous and persuasive role, ends 34-long years of India’s vanvas on the nuclear technology and material front.

Most of our scientists, beginning with the former President — often called India’s missile man — Dr A. P. J. Abdul Kalam, have welcome the removal of the first stumbling block. Let’s not forget that it is not yet time for celebration — even though the equity markets toasted the NSG clearance on Monday with a 500-point-plus salute — the Indo-US civil nuclear deal is not yet through. The 123 agreement has to get the nod from the US Congress and there too we have India baiters that could put an Austria, New Zealand and, of course, China, that clearly tried to create last minute mischief, to shame.

Apart from lobbies within the US government, there are other civilian lobbies too, particularly those related to non-proliferation, that are exerting immense pressure on their government not to end India’s isolation on the nuclear technology front unless it signs the non-proliferation treaty. Even though both the US presidential hopefuls — Senators John McCain and Barrack Obama — have hailed the NSG waiver, there are quite a few Democrats opposed to the deal.

In the non-political arena, opposition to the nuke deal is spearheaded by the Arms Control Association of the US. Aghast at the waiver India has got at the NSG, an article on its Web site says this “unprecedented move will undermine the value of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the already beleaguered nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).”

Describing the outcome as a “non-proliferation disaster of historic proportions that will produce harm for decades to come”, it says the India-specific exemption from NSG guidelines “severely erodes the credibility of global efforts to ensure that access to peaceful nuclear trade and technology is available only to those states that meet global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament standards.”

Raising the bogey of a nuclear arms race in South Asia and its disastrous implication for the rest of the world, it argues that nuclear fuel sales to India for “Indian power reactors may marginally help increase India’s energy output, but at the same time it will free up India’s limited domestic uranium supplies to be used exclusively for bomb-making. This will lead Pakistan to follow suit and help fuel the South Asian arms race.”

But the Bush government is firmly on India’s side, and even though the latest bonhomie between India and the US raises concerns about India toeing the American line in the disastrous geo-political moves that American governments regularly make, for the moment this is a victory for India on many counts.

Political stability, economic confidence

On the political stability front, it is a personal victory for the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, who had put his prime ministership on the block in July, when his government barely managed to win a trust vote on this count. If the Samajwadi Party had not come on board and saved the UPA Government, the Vienna meet would not have happened and we might have already been in election mode. In that eventuality, the last priority for our politicians would have been the nuke deal; they would have been busy bickering about galloping inflation and shooting prices and the nuke deal would have been forgotten.

With this triumph under its belt, there is no need for the UPA Government to now seek dissolution of the Lok Sabha as was being forecast in some quarters, and seek elections by the end of the year.

On the economic and business front, the end of India’s isolation among the nuclear elite of the world, when it does materialise after a clearance from the US Congress, will send waves of confidence in the international business community about India’s forward march on the global economic platform.

Whereas countries like France and Russia, which have been solidly backing India on the NSG waiver, will look forward to selling their reactors to India, there will be immense economic opportunities that will be unleashed as India’s new and resurgent nuclear power programme gets off the threshold, unleashing a huge investment potential. The capital goods, engineering and power equipment industries will get a huge boost and the equity market echoed this confidence by giving a leg up to the share price of these companies on Monday.

Those who are shouting from rooftops, particularly the Left parties, that this deal will spell an end to India’s independent foreign policy and compromise its sovereignty, obliging it to toe the American line on any future geo political development, show little faith in the increasing power that a resurgent India is bound to play in world events in the coming years.

A little like the US, where groups such as the Arms Control Association can pressure their government not to allow India to get away with nuclear technology without giving a legal and binding assurance that it will not conduct any more nuclear tests in the future, in India too, we have enough diverse opinions and activist groups that will not stand by and watch in silence if any future Indian Government decides to become a stooge of Uncle Sam.

Powerful voices

This is a country where an Arundhati Roy can write a powerful, well-researched and well-argued essay on why India should let Kashmir go. You might disagree with her views; she might invite abuse and brickbats from various quarters for saying this but nobody can take away her right to articulate her thoughts. In the same way, a couple of years ago, a Sunita Narain, from Delhi’s Centre of Science and Environment, could bring the global cola giants down on their knees as she unleashed a campaign against them for using pesticide-infested water while making their colas in India. The fruit juice industry in India owes it to her because her campaign influenced thousands of parents to replace colas with fruit juices in their monthly grocery lists. They will be blessed by their children years down the line!

So India is neither a banana republic nor a pushover that will stand by and watch helplessly, or worse, lend its land or waters, to facilitate any future attack on, say, Iran. Even if any Indian government would want to act thus, there are enough lobbies and groups and voices within the country that will not allow such a decision.

Unlike communist China, this is a democracy… chaotic, a little confused, a lot corrupt and a bit manipulative it might be when it comes to garnering votes, winning elections and buying legislators. This democracy might allow a Mamata Banerjee to stall one of the most prestigious industrial projects of this country — production of the Nano car which the entire world is watching. But it also enables a suave and sombre West Bengal Governor, Mr Gopalkrishna Gandhi, to come forth and find a solution.

We fumble a little and we bumble a lot more, but there is little doubt that the Indian enterprise, intellect and genius, which have bestowed so much wealth and worth on foreign shores, will eventually take this country forward on the global platform. But before we reach there, we have to set many things in order; one of the most important will be bridging the wide gap between the rich and the poor, the urban and the rural, the highly educated and the illiterate, the industrialist/technologist/professionals and the farmers. Affordable electricity in each home, field, office or industrial unit is no more a luxury; it is a necessity.

Many of us can afford to ride through massive power cuts through scorching summers by keeping our AC units on through mega inverters or generators.

If any road, however tortuous, controversial or thorny it might be, can take us to an India where the poorest of students can prepare for his/her exams at midnight without fearing a power snarl, and the smallest of farmer can depend on assured power supply for his water needs, it will have to be walked, whatever be the price. We hear and talk enough about social equity, especially during elections…it’s time for delivery.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in

Related Stories:
Tech transfer: NSG statement asks members to ‘exercise restraint’
India crosses a nuclear hurdle with NSG waiver
India’s nuclear deal: A bridge too far?

More Stories on : Power | Rasheeda Bhagat

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