The Hindu Business Line : Deficit stays at 3% as excess rain zone shifts south

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 11 All-India rain deficit remained unchanged at three per cent on Wednesday from the position five days ago but the excess precipitation zone has lately shifted to the southern peninsula.

Of the five Met subdivisions recording surplus rains, three are now in the peninsular south, whose ‘dry run’ in the agriculturally important July had threatened to trigger moderate drought conditions across the region.

An equal number of sub-divisions are in deficit, mostly in central India and the peninsula.

These regions have since made smart gains but Marathwada (-23 per cent) and Kerala (-22 per cent) are still in the red, though vastly improved when seen against their respective July scores.

West Madhya Pradesh (-23 per cent) and Saurashtra and Kutch (-25 per cent) are the two problem areas in adjoining central India. Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-23 per cent) in the north-east rounds up the deficit list.

The prevailing well-marked ‘low’ over the west-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to make some qualitative difference to the scenario in central India and peninsular northeast over the next few days.

LIMITED GAINS

But the gains would be limited to Kerala, since, going forward, most of the emerging weather would be confined to the north peninsula and the adjoining central and west-central India.

The well-marked low would just about leave the space for a much stronger system (a depression/deep depression) in the making in the Bay. Heavy to very heavy rains are seen breaking out over Central India, the west coast and the Konkan-Mumbai-South Gujarat belt.

The US-based Centre for Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Studies has extended the calendar for rainy days right up to September 27 with prospects of spill over into early October. The extended rains could delay the withdrawal of the monsoon, which would prove beneficial for the winter (rabi) crop.

Meanwhile, the monsoon has been vigorous over coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka and active over interior Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning, an update by the Chennai Met Centre said.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Kerala and Karnataka, at many places over coastal Andhra Pradesh and at a few places over Telangana. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu and Rayalaseema.

Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Kerala and coastal Karnataka, at many places over Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep and interior Karnataka and at a few places over Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

HEAVY RAINS WARNED

A warning issued separately said that isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and coastal Karnataka. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over Rayalaseema, Kerala and interior Karnataka.

In west-central peninsula, the monsoon was vigorous over south Konkan-Goa.

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