The Hindu Business Line : Rains to keep monsoon withdrawal at bay

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 13 It is becoming increasingly clear that the monsoon would force another round of wet weather spanning almost the whole of the country except the southern peninsula.

Its withdrawal, which should normally be apace around this time, would need fresh appraisal in the face of forecasts for back-to-back weather-making systems in the Bay of Bengal.

The first of these would materialise over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay over the next two days. The second is tentatively forecast to take shape within a week hence.

In fact, a strong cause-effect link between the two is emerging since the first is seen being accosted by an incoming western disturbance from the northwest border.

This interaction would cause the combined system to accentuate and be driven back to the east under the influence of the stronger western disturbance. In doing so, it would be made to sweep central India and the adjoining North Bay to spark the formation of the second ‘low.’

LIKELY DEPRESSION

Both these systems are shown to push rains into the northwest, east and the northeast after walloping central India during the initial phase. India Meteorological Department (IMD) too has notified the formation of the first of these systems, which it sees intensifying as a likely depression.

The week ending September 20 would see rains aggregating to as much as 600 per cent above the normal pounding the north Konkan-Mumbai-South Gujarat belt, according to an outlook by the US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies.

Central India, which now is left with the worst deficit among the four homogenous regions (nine per cent) according to latest IMD updates, too is seen benefiting from this outing. West Madhya Pradesh (-21 per cent) and Saurashtra and Kutch (-24 per cent) are the Met subdivisions in deficit here.

The southern peninsula is holding a surplus of five per cent, thanks to Marathawada (-24 per cent) and Kerala (-20 per cent) improving their positions considerably. But it remains to be seen whether Kerala would benefit much from the brewing systems in the Bay since a regime of periodically suppressed rains is engulfing the peninsula from south-up over the next few days.

The northeast is in deficit to the extent of six per cent, shouldered mainly by the subdivision of Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (-23 per cent). This region could also expect to get some showers from the western disturbance-led systems pushing in during the weeks ahead.

Rains are shown to spread along the west coast during this week, but in lesser frequency and intensity during the next, since they would be driven largely by the interaction of monsoon easterlies and the western disturbances. These are a good augury for the winter crop (Rabi) in central India and the northwest, though.

The IMD update further said the cumulative all-India rain deficit remained unchanged at three per cent as on Friday (September 12). Rainfall over Vidarbha and Coastal Karnataka has improved compared to the last week and is now within the normal range.

The number of subdivisions recording excess rainfall are four, while as many as 25 are now bracketed in the normal category. The deficit list contains five (against seven of last week).

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