• Investment World
• eWorld
• Brand Line
• Mentor
• Life
• Brand Quest
• The New Manager
• BL Club
• Smartbuy

Stocks

• Quotes
• SE Diary
• Scoreboard
• Open-End Mutual Fund

Cross Currency

• Rates
  
  

Shipping

• Ports
  
  

Archives

• Yesterday
• Datewise
• Resources
• In Focus
• In Depth
• Events 2007

Group Sites

• The Hindu
• The Hindu ePaper
• Business Line
• Business Line ePaper
• Sportstar
• Frontline
• The Hindu eBooks
• The Hindu Images

Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 14 India Meteorological Department is expecting a fresh ‘low’ to break out over the west-central Bay of Bengal on Monday to set off another round of rains over Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and later into central India.

This system is forecast to pack some punch, relatively speaking, while washing ashore and wading its way into the hinterland. Forecast track posits the weakening system in line for a rendezvous with an incoming western disturbance from the northwest.

From then on, the western disturbance would decide the course for propagation of the combined entity, which would decidedly be east-southeast. This would push rains over northwest India, and later into the east and northeast through the week. Parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, entire Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, apart from the North-East, are seen benefiting from these late-season burst.

The monsoon was vigorous over Gujarat and South Konkan-Goa and active over North Konkan during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning. Rainfall occurred at many places over north madhya Maharashtra, at a few places over south madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.

A Mumbai Met Office update said a ‘low’ has formed over the northeast Arabian Sea off the South Gujarat-North Maharashtra coast. But a later update said the system has weakened and lay parked over Gujarat and neighbourhood.

Forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Konkan-Goa, south Gujarat and Saurashtra and at many places over madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, north Gujarat and Kutch. Thus the enhanced rain belt is seen pelting north peninsula and adjoining central India.

More rains are expected into this region as the brewing ‘low’ in the Bay crosses land and gets a move to west-northwest. Areas coming in for pounding during this phase are likely to be north Andhra Pradesh, south Orissa, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha.

The prevailing ‘low’ over Marathawada and neighbourhood has become less marked. On Sunday, a remnant upper level cyclonic circulation lay over west Madhya Pradesh, a Met subdivision lately featuring in the deficit list.

An offshore trough ran down from south Gujarat to Kerala coast, while the land-based monsoon trough passed through Idar, Ujjain, Pachmarhi, Champa, Bhubaneshwar and then southeastward into southeast Bay of Bengal. Incidentally, a cyclonic circulation has been traced to over north Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood on Sunday. This is forecast to bring rains into Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Orissa.

On Sunday, Typhoon Sinlaku stormed into Taiwan and is forecast to trigger more such systems in its wake in the Northwest Pacific that currently houses the warmest waters around the globe.

Some forecasters are of the view that the Bay of Bengal would also compel attention at some point of time during this phase. Which is a given, if the Pacific typhoons were to track west-northwest and enter the South China Sea.

Half a world away, the risk of hurricanes spinning up in the tropical Atlantic is also expected to grow during this phase. This comes after Hurricane Ike having barrelled into the Texan coast and caused massive flooding but continued to be a potent system over land.

An interesting debate is raging over the ‘neutral phase’ (neither warm La Nina nor cold El Nino) in the equatorial central Pacific. While the possibility of an El Nino event rearing its ahead during the rest of 2008 is being discounted, some forecasters bet on available signals suggestive of a return to a weak La Nina phase.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Copyright © 2008, The Hindu Business Line. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu Business Line