The Hindu Business Line : Rains turn sparse over South on new Bay ‘low’

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 15 A ‘low’ has sprung up over the north Bay of Bengal on Monday, but its place of bearing beat earlier forecasts of being more southerly bound and centered over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay.

The system is likely to get more marked (intensified) and would track west-northwest, says an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook.

The other major weather-making system active was an upper air cyclonic circulation over northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat coast persisting from Sunday.

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls over north Konkan, Gujarat, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next three days. Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, north Konkan, Gujarat and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

RAINS TO SCALE UP

The three days ending September 20 are forecast to witness an increase in rainfall activity over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and west Uttar Pradesh. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely to continue along the west coast.

Meanwhile, the region of suppressed rains associated with a passing Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave has made its presence felt in the southern peninsula where rainfall has become sparse.

This contrasts with the scenario over north peninsula and adjoining west-central India, which are being lashed by its tail, even as the head-end packing enhanced convection and rains was making a splash in the Bay of Bengal and further east into the western Pacific.

This has left the Bay in an excited state, and the prevailing ‘low’ is forecast to be tail-ended by another rain-maker system over west-central Bay in another week’s time.

MONSOON SPILLOVER

The end result is that the monsoon will spill over into October, according to forecasts by the US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies. It has maintained its outlook of rains spreading in varying intensity over almost the whole country except extreme west Rajasthan and the southern peninsula. The five-day period ending October 1 shows a belt of heavy rain sitting over east and adjoining central India.

During the 24 hours ending Monday morning, the monsoon was vigorous over Saurashtra-Kutch and active over south Konkan-Goa and Gujarat. Rainfall occurred at most places over north Konkan, at many places over north Madhya Maharashtra and at isolated places over south Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada. Forecast for the next two days said that rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places over Gujarat, at many places over Konkan-Goa and north Madhya Maharashtra, at a few places over south Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.

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