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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 17

The deep depression in the Bay of Bengal (classified as a ‘numbered tropical cyclone 02B’ internationally) crossed the Orissa coast on Tuesday evening and has lain centred over north Orissa through Wednesday retaining much of its intensity.

The system is likely to keep moving in a northwesterly direction, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said. It will trigger heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over Orissa during the next 24 hours and over Chhattisgarh during the next two days.

Other regions likely to get battered are north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and east Madhya Pradesh. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/hr are likely along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast.

Sea conditions are rough to very rough along and off these coasts. A similar warning will be in force along the Maharashtra-Goa coast as well. The cyclonic circulation over Gujarat is persisting, and may cause fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Konkan and Gujarat during the next two days.

The belt of enhanced rains spearheaded by the Bay system, and getting intensified from an interaction with an incoming westerly trough from the northwest border, will be active over northwest India outside of Jammu and Kashmir for the three days ending September 22.

The Bay of Bengal and the adjacent water bodies of South China Sea and the western Pacific have been put on notice for ‘cyclogenesis’ (birth of cyclones) by the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services during the week ending September 22.

These are the seas where a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave front-ending a payload of anomalously enhanced precipitation is currently active. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) has persisted with the outlook for another ‘low’ to spin up over the Bay during this period.

The buzz is seen touching off on the South China Sea and the adjoining Northwest Pacific as well. In contrast, the rear end of the MJO wave featuring suppressed rainfall is spreading out over the equatorial Indian Ocean, adjoining Sri Lanka and the southern Indian peninsula.

An outlook put out by the Wheeler MJO model suggests the dry phase in the southern peninsula will creep into the north to cover the entire peninsula and adjoining east Arabian Sea and southwest and south-central Bay of Bengal up to October 6.

The next wave of enhanced rainfall will transit Africa and into the southwest Indian Ocean and then into the southern peninsula and the entire Bay over a period of 10 days starting from October 17 .

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