The Hindu Business Line : Westerly rolls in, presages heavy falls in northwest

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 19 A western disturbance has crossed in from the international border into northwest India and, according to forecasts, would set up a productive interaction with the prevailing monsoon depression hovering over northeast Madhya Pradesh.

Scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated extremely heavy falls exceeding 25 cm has been forecast over west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

Scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is also likely over east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Madhya Pradesh while isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Bihar and northeast Rajasthan.

The interaction of the systems would leave the north and northwest awash with oodles of moisture, which would be forced to rise against the western Himalayan ranges. This would lead to cooling, condensation and heavy to very heavy precipitation over western Nepal as well.

A warning issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Madhya Pradesh.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Bihar and northeast Rajasthan. In west-central India, where monsoon continues to be vigorous, isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gujarat, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka. Extended outlook for three days ending September 24 indicated decrease in rainfall activity over northwest India as well as in the east.

Meanwhile, a watch continues to be maintained for yet another ‘low’ in the Bay of Bengal around September 25. The Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre of the US Navy and the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts have shared this outlook.

The ‘low’ is seen waxing and waning along the southeast coast but would see two systems developing concurrently to its immediate west and to some distance into the east.

While the first one would be a follow-up western disturbance dipping into central India, the second is a typhoon-in-making in the South China Sea.

Importantly, the typhoon is forecast to take a west-northwest direction for lateral movement, which could possibly roll out a remnant system into the Bay of Bengal where it could grow as a weather-making system.

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