The Hindu Business Line : EU ‘recession’ and seaborne trade

The global economic slowdown, centred on a weaker US economy, is showing signs of decline ahead for the seaborne container trade, according to Global Insight shipping analysis. “We are concerned about the growing number of economic indicators for the European Union that point to a greater loss of consumer confidences than anticipated,” Global Insight managing director Mr Paul Bingham has been quoted as saying to the Shipping Gazette. “I ndicators now suggest that the EU is headed towards recession as industrial production in the Eurozone fell 1.9 per cent in May, the sharpest since 1992, according to recent Eurostate data.” Asia to Europe trade, he estimated, would grow no more than two per cent in 2008 while Mediterranean/Black Sea trade would grow four per cent. After that, 2009 would remain weak, as recessionary tendencies would be slow to work themselves through towards recovery. US containerised imports would decline 8.2 per cent in the current year as compared to the earlier projected 7.1 per cent drop. This would happen because of the deteriorating prospect of imports through the US Gulf ports. However, the US exports might grow from 17.7 per cent to 22.6 per cent this year and the major destinations would be India, Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea, the report adds.

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