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Suresh P. Iyengar

Mumbai, Sept 21 Despite recent spikes, jeera, chilli and turmeric futures on NCDEX are expected to remain bearish in the short term.

Jeera (cumin seed) for October delivery on NCDEX on Friday hit the upper circuit at Rs 11,097 a quintal on short covering. Though jeera contracts on NCDEX may witness minor gains, enough inventory is available to meet the festival demand and may pressurise the prices, said an analyst. At Unjha, the main mandi for Jeera, daily arrivals were at about 1,500 bags (1 bag equals 55 kg). On Friday, prices were at Rs 2,250/20 kg (1 per cent quality) and Rs 2,200/20 kg (2 per cent quality).

On the international front, the demand is very dull. Exporters seem to receive only enquiries not backed by any major business. Two per cent quality cumin was offered by exporters at $2,450/20 kg (f.o.b.).

On NCDEX, there was no major movement on Friday as volumes shrunk considerably. However, a bearish sentiment will prevail in the chilli counter as the present stocks, coupled with the new crop from Madhya Pradesh (arriving in mid-October), would be sufficient to meet the demand in the coming months.

At Guntur in Andhra Pradesh, about 45,000 bags (1 bag = 45 kg) arrived, while prices were at Rs 4,800-5,200 a quintal for LCA 334. A stock of 23 lakh bags was traded on Friday. No major domestic and export demand seems to be materialising. LCA 334 is being offered by exporters at $1,240, but no major deals have been struck. The first stock of fresh chilli will arrive from Madhya Pradesh mid-October. Sufficient rains have resulted in good harvest in Madhya Pradesh. Crop size in Madhya Pradesh seems to be about 20 lakh bags.

Chilli is grown in Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Andhra Pradesh contributes about 70 per cent of the total output. The crop from Madhya Pradesh is the first to arrive in the market followed by Karnataka (Byadgi) in November, Maharashtra in December and Andhra Pradesh in January.

On Friday, turmeric hit the upper circuit on short covering. However, good monsoon in the turmeric growing belt is expected to boost the output. Moreover, sowing this year has improved by 20 per cent compared to last year. Fresh crop is expected in January.

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